VIC478 suburbs assessed

Climate Risk in Victoria Suburbs

Victorian suburbs face significant bushfire risk in outer-metro and Dandenong Ranges communities, with flood risk concentrated in low-lying Melbourne suburbs along the Yarra, Maribyrnong, and Werribee catchments. Extreme heat events are increasing in frequency across the state.

BushfireFloodExtreme HeatStorm

Tanjil South

Baw Baw Shire Council

Medium
100

Tanjil South, Victoria, faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with a lower but present risk of bushfires.

Tanjil Bren

Baw Baw Shire Council

High
78

Tanjil Bren faces significant bushfire and flood risks due to its location within dense forests and proximity to waterways.

Sassafras

UNKNOWN

High
72

Sassafras, Victoria, faces significant climate risks, particularly from bushfires and flooding due to its location in the Dandenong Ranges.

Sulky

Pyrenees Shire

High
72

Sulky, Victoria, faces significant risks from bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves.

Scotchmans Lead

City of Ballarat

Medium
58

Scotchmans Lead faces a medium overall climate risk, primarily driven by significant bushfire threats and increasing flood and heat risks.

Scotsburn

Shire of Baw Baw

Medium
58

Scotsburn, located in Victoria's Shire of Baw Baw, faces a medium overall climate risk, primarily driven by a high bushfire risk and a moderate flood risk.

Silverleaves

Greater Bendigo City Council

Medium
58

Silverleaves, VIC, faces a medium overall climate risk, primarily driven by significant bushfire and heatwave threats.

Smiths Beach

Bass Coast Shire Council

Medium
58

Smiths Beach, Victoria, faces significant climate risks, particularly from coastal hazards and bushfires.

Sorrento

Mornington Peninsula

Medium
58

Sorrento faces increasing risks from climate change, particularly coastal erosion, bushfires, and heatwaves.

St Helena

City of Banyule

Medium
58

St Helena in Victoria faces a significant bushfire and heat risk, with moderate flood potential.

Stratford

Wellington

Medium
58

Stratford is a town in Victoria that faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves.

Sunset Strip

Bass Coast Shire Council

Medium
58

Sunset Strip faces a medium overall climate risk, driven significantly by high coastal and heat risks.

Templestowe

UNKNOWN

Medium
58

Templestowe faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change.

Traralgon

Latrobe City

Medium
58

Traralgon faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change.

Seymour

Mitchell

Medium
55

Seymour faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change.

Shady Creek

Gippsland Shire Council

Medium
55

Shady Creek, Victoria, faces a moderate overall climate risk, primarily driven by a significant bushfire threat due to its location within a bushfire-prone area.

Somerville

Mornington Peninsula

Medium
55

Somerville is a suburb in Victoria that faces moderate climate risks, particularly from flooding and heatwaves.

South Dudley

Bass Coast Shire Council

Medium
55

South Dudley, Victoria, faces a moderate overall climate risk, primarily driven by bushfire threats due to its proximity to natural vegetation.

St Clair

City of Brimbank

Medium
55

St Clair in Victoria faces a medium overall climate risk, primarily driven by significant heat risks due to urbanisation and limited green space.

Summerlands

Bass Coast Shire Council

Medium
55

Summerlands faces a medium overall climate risk, with significant threats from bushfire and coastal hazards.

Sunderland Bay

Bass Coast Shire Council

Medium
55

Sunderland Bay faces significant coastal risks, including erosion and inundation, exacerbated by sea level rise and increased storm intensity.

Surf Beach

Bass Coast Shire Council

Medium
55

Surf Beach faces a medium overall climate risk, with significant threats from coastal erosion and inundation due to its beachfront location.

Swan Hill

UNKNOWN

Medium
55

Swan Hill faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves.

Tenby Point

Bass Coast Shire Council

Medium
55

Tenby Point faces a medium overall climate risk, primarily driven by significant heat and coastal hazards.

Tetoora Road

City of Monash

Medium
55

Tetoora Road faces a medium overall climate risk, primarily driven by significant heat stress and increasing flood potential.

The Gurdies

Bass Coast Shire Council

Medium
55

The Gurdies, VIC, faces a significant bushfire risk due to its surrounding vegetation and a moderate risk from flooding and heatwaves.

Thomson

City of Greater Geelong

Medium
55

Thomson, VIC, faces a moderate overall climate risk, with significant concerns around heatwaves and a notable flood risk due to its proximity to the Barwon River.

Thorpdale South

South Gippsland Shire Council

Medium
55

Thorpdale South faces a medium overall climate risk, primarily driven by increasing heatwave intensity and moderate flood risks.

Thorpdale

South Gippsland Shire Council

Medium
55

Thorpdale, Victoria, faces a medium overall climate risk, with significant threats from heatwaves and a moderate risk from bushfires.

Torwood

Moorabool Shire Council

Medium
55

Torwood, Victoria, faces a moderate overall climate risk, primarily driven by a significant bushfire threat due to its proximity to natural vegetation.

Trafalgar East

Baw Baw Shire Council

Medium
55

Trafalgar East in Victoria faces a moderate overall climate risk, with bushfire posing the most significant threat due to its location near extensive bushland.

Trafalgar South

Baw Baw Shire Council

Medium
55

Trafalgar South in Victoria faces moderate to high risks from flooding and heatwaves, with increasing trends due to climate change.

Trafalgar

Latrobe City

Medium
55

Trafalgar, Victoria, faces a medium overall climate risk, with significant bushfire and moderate flood and heat risks.

Trida

Pyrenees Shire Council

Medium
55

Trida, Victoria, faces a moderate to high climate risk, primarily driven by increasing bushfire and heatwave threats.

Seaford

Frankston

Medium
52

Seaford faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards.

Sebastopol

UNKNOWN

Medium
52

Sebastopol faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with climate change expected to exacerbate these threats.

Selwyn

Medium
52

Selwyn faces increasing risks from heatwaves and flooding due to climate change.

Shepparton

UNKNOWN

Medium
52

Shepparton faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change.

Smoko

Alpine

Medium
52

Smoko, Victoria, faces moderate climate risks, particularly from bushfires and flooding.

Smythes Creek

City of Ballarat

Medium
52

Smythes Creek faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves.

Soldiers Hill

City of Greater Bendigo

Medium
52

Soldiers Hill faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to increase with climate change.

St Arnaud

Northern Grampians Shire

Medium
52

St Arnaud faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present.

Stavely

Ararat Rural City

Medium
52

Stavely faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.

Stawell

UNKNOWN

Medium
52

Stawell faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.

Strathfieldsaye

City of Greater Bendigo

Medium
52

Strathfieldsaye faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change.

Streatham

Pyrenees Shire

Medium
52

Streatham is a rural town in Victoria that faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves.

Sunbury

Hume

Medium
52

Sunbury faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present.

Tatura

Greater Shepparton

Medium
52

Tatura faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves.

Tatyoon

Ararat

Medium
52

Tatyoon faces moderate risks from bushfires, heatwaves and flooding.

Tawonga South

Alpine

Medium
52

Tawonga South faces increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves due to climate change.

Tawonga

Alpine

Medium
52

Tawonga faces moderate risks from flooding and bushfires, with increasing heat risk.

Torquay

Surf Coast

Medium
52

Torquay faces a medium risk from climate change impacts.

Tourello

Hepburn

Medium
52

Tourello faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change.

Truganina

Wyndham

Medium
52

Truganina faces moderate climate risks, primarily related to flooding and heatwaves.

Upper Gundowring

Towong Shire

Medium
52

Upper Gundowring faces moderate risks from flooding and bushfires, with increasing heat risk due to climate change.

South Yarra

Unknown

Assessment in progress

Springvale

Unknown

Assessment in progress

St Kilda

Unknown

Assessment in progress

Tarneit

Unknown

Assessment in progress

Toorak

Unknown

Assessment in progress

About Climate Risk in Victoria

Victorian suburbs face significant bushfire risk in outer-metro and Dandenong Ranges communities, with flood risk concentrated in low-lying Melbourne suburbs along the Yarra, Maribyrnong, and Werribee catchments. Extreme heat events are increasing in frequency across the state.

ClimateNest suburb assessments are built using Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) historical hazard data, CSIRO future climate projections under SSP2-4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, state-specific hazard overlays from emergency services and planning authorities, and actuarial data. Every assessment includes current hazard scores (0–100), projected scores for 2030 and 2050, local geographic evidence, insurance outlook, and property owner recommendations.

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What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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Climate Risk in Victoria Suburbs — Page 7: 2026 Assessments | ClimateNest