Aligned with Australia's National Climate Risk Assessment 2025

Science-backed climate risk
methodology for Australian property

ClimateNest Index v1.0 · Updated June 2026

Property-Specific Climate Risk Assessment Powered by Government & Research Data

We combine 16 data sources — including BOM, CSIRO, ABS, and state government hazard mapping — using one published scoring rule to deliver address-level climate intelligence, not suburb averages. AI reads that data and writes the assessment and its narrative explanation.

Multi-Source Integration

We synthesise BOM climate records, CSIRO projections, ABS economic indicators, NASA POWER daily observations, state hazard overlays, and verified property market data to create a single trusted evidence-base for each address.

  • BOM & CSIRO climate projections
  • Official economic context from ABS
  • ABS Total Value of Dwellings for the state-level property value tier (CC BY 4.0, quarterly)
  • Victorian suburb median house and unit sales (Land Use Victoria, CC BY 4.0)
  • South Australian metro median house sales (Office of the Valuer-General, licensed under Creative Commons Attribution)
  • AS/NZS 1170.2 wind regions for Australia (Geoscience Australia, CC BY 4.0, DOI 10.26186/146359) — published as a derived classification, indicative only, not for design purposes
  • State bushfire, flood & coastal overlays
  • Verified property attributes & valuations

Intent-Driven Intelligence

Every report is tailored to how you'll use it. First home buyers get plain-English guidance, investors see yield and portfolio impact, and conveyancers receive contract-ready technical summaries — all from the same underlying data.

  • Personalised for 5 buyer intents (own, buy, invest, agent, conveyancer)
  • Financial translations: insurance premiums, value impact, mortgage stress
  • Property-specific adaptation costs calculated from your floor area, land size & build year

Granular Risk Modelling

Address-level resolution with ensemble projections, insurance modelling and local adaptation playbooks so you can understand both near-term and long-term exposures.

  • Address-level flood, bushfire & heat scores
  • Scenario-driven value impacts (2035/2050)
  • Actionable retrofit & cost estimates

The ClimateNest Index™

Australia's most transparent property climate risk score. 0–100. One number. 16 official data sources.

What It Measures

HazardData SourcesKey Factors
FloodBOM + state flood mappingRiverine, surface water, coastal inundation, 1-in-100yr AEP
BushfireState fire services, VIC Geoservice AUBAL rating, proximity to bushland, ember attack zone
HeatBOM + CSIRO projectionsDays >37°C, urban heat island effect, heatwave frequency
CoastalCSIRO sea level rise, coastal erosion modelsStorm surge, king tide exposure, shoreline retreat
WindAS/NZS 1170.2 wind regions (Geoscience Australia, CC BY 4.0)Design gust region as a derived classification, severe wind events, structural vulnerability
StormBOM severe thunderstorm databaseHail frequency, lightning strike density, severe convection
Social VulnerabilityABS Census 2021, SEIFA, local councilSocioeconomic stress, climate adaptation capacity
EnergyNEM data, solar/battery uptake, grid resilienceEnergy cost trajectory, blackout risk, renewable penetration

Composite Formula

The ClimateNest Index™ starts with a base equal-weighted mean of all 8 hazard dimensions, each scored 0–100. Then, goal-aware multipliers are applied to emphasise the hazards most relevant to your specific use case.

Base Score × Hazard Weight = Final ClimateNest Index™

Goal Profiles

Buying to Live

Flood: 1.3×Bushfire: 1.3×Heat: 1.1×

Buying to Invest

Flood: 1.4×Bushfire: 1.2×Coastal Erosion: 1.1×

Owner

Coastal Erosion: 1.3×Storm: 1.2×Flood: 1.1×

Conveyancer / Solicitor

Flood: 1.3×Bushfire: 1.3×Coastal Erosion: 1.1×

Buyer's Agent

Flood: 1.3×Bushfire: 1.2×

Verbal Rating Bands

0–16
Minimal
Exceptional climate resilience
17–33
Low
Below-average exposure, manageable
34–50
Moderate
Average Australian residential risk
51–66
Elevated
Above average, mitigation advised
67–83
High
Significant exposure, insurance essential
84–100
Severe
Extreme exposure, potential uninsurability

Temporal Projections

Current
2024–2026
Real-time hazard assessment using the latest available data from BOM, CSIRO, and state hazard mapping authorities.
2030
RCP 4.5
Moderate emissions scenario. Represents a world where global efforts limit warming to around 2.5°C by 2100.
2050
RCP 8.5
High emissions scenario. Represents a world where emissions continue to rise at current rates.

Worked Example

A property may score 42/100 today (Moderate), 51/100 in 2030 (Elevated), 68/100 in 2050 (High).

This progression shows how climate change affects properties over time. The same property becomes progressively harder to insure and may face reduced buyer demand as risk increases.

Financial Translation

We convert physical hazard scores into forward-looking financial projections. Sample outputs below are illustrative and based on ensemble model outputs.

  • Estimated market value (now): A$1,200,000
  • Projected dollar impact 2035: -A$45,000
  • Projected dollar impact 2050: -A$120,000

Scenario Summary

High flood exposure: Insurability warning — estimated 2.5x premium loading.

Bushfire elevated: BAL remediation recommended — est. +A$40k construction uplift.

These figures are calibrated for Australian markets and are model outputs, not binding quotes.

How We're Different

ProviderOriginHazardsWeightingCalibration
ClimateCheckUS6 hazardsNo goal-weightingUS calibration
First Street FoundationUS1-10 scoreNo AI personalisationNo AU data
Groundsure ClimateIndex™UK3 hazardsMax-risk, not goal-awareUK method · NSW only
Climate ValuationAU6 hazardsFEMA cost model, not goal-awareAustralia-wide · FEMA (US) thresholds
ClimateNest Index™AU8 hazardsGoal-awareAustralian calibration, fully transparent

Competitor capabilities are taken from each provider's own published methodology and product documentation, not from our summary of them. Where a provider operates in more than one market, the row describes its Australian offering.

Data Sources

Every source behind a report is named below with what it contributes and the licence it is published under. This is the same register the sample report and the paid report print, so the three surfaces cannot disagree.

Bureau of Meteorology
Climate records, weather and fire danger ratings
CC BY 3.0 AU where marked
CSIRO
Climate projections (RCP 4.5 / 8.5)
CC BY
Australian Bureau of Statistics
Census 2021, SEIFA, Total Value of Dwellings
CC BY 4.0
Geoscience Australia
DEA Coastlines; AS/NZS 1170.2 wind regions (DOI 10.26186/146359)
CC BY 4.0
NSW Rural Fire Service
NSW bushfire prone land mapping
NSW Government terms
Queensland Fire Department (RFSQ)
Queensland bushfire prone area mapping
Queensland Government terms
Vicmap Planning / CFA
Victorian bushfire management overlay
Victorian Government terms
WA SLIP / DFES
Western Australian bushfire prone areas
Western Australian Government terms
Land Use Victoria
Victorian suburb median house and unit sales
CC BY 4.0
Office of the Valuer-General, SA
Metropolitan Adelaide median house sales
Creative Commons Attribution
Google Maps Platform
Geocoding, imagery, elevation, solar potential, air quality
Commercial API licence
NASA POWER
Daily observed temperature and precipitation series (MERRA-2)
Open (US Government)
OpenStreetMap / Nominatim
Address geocoding
ODbL
Australian Energy Regulator
Energy Made Easy market data
CC BY 4.0
SRTM / ASTER elevation
Elevation and terrain models (via OpenTopoData)
Open
NSW BOCSAR
Community safety and crime indicators
CC BY

16 sources. Three are commercial services (Google Maps Platform, OpenStreetMap / Nominatim, SRTM), so they are counted as data sources rather than described as government data; the rest are government or research publishers.

Frequently Asked Questions

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Limitations of Methodology

01

Probabilistic Nature

Our climate risk scores are probabilistic estimates based on RCP 8.5 scenarios. They represent potential future risks, not guaranteed outcomes. A “Low Risk” score does not mean “No Risk.”

02

Data Latency

We utilise datasets from third-party providers (including BOM, ABS, and NASA POWER). While we update regularly, real-world conditions may have changed since the last data release.

03

Property Specifics

This methodology assesses risk at a lot or suburb level. It does not account for property-specific mitigations (e.g., retaining walls, raised floors, fire-resistant materials) which would lower actual risk.

04

Not a Site Survey

This analysis is digital and AI-driven. It is not a substitute for a physical site inspection by a qualified surveyor or engineer.