Thomson Climate Risk Profile

Thomson, Victoria· City of Greater Geelong· 3215
Updated June 2026

Thomson, VIC, faces a moderate overall climate risk, with significant concerns around heatwaves and a notable flood risk due to its proximity to the Barwon River. While bushfire and coastal risks are low, the suburb's susceptibility to extreme heat events is projected to increase.

Is Thomson Safe from Climate Risk?

Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Thomson, Victoria, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.

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What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

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Overall Risk Score

Address-level

Hazard Breakdown

Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Thomson

Flood

Thomson faces a moderate flood risk, primarily due to its proximity to the Barwon River and potential for flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding

Bushfire

The risk of bushfire is relatively low, with limited direct bushland interface within the suburb itself.

Key drivers:

  • ·Proximity to peri-urban areas
  • ·Vegetation management

Heat

Thomson is highly susceptible to heatwaves, with a significant number of days exceeding 35°C projected.

Key drivers:

  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Coastal

Thomson is located inland and has no direct exposure to coastal erosion or sea-level rise.

Wind

Data being compiled

Storm

Data being compiled

Social

Data being compiled

Energy

Data being compiled

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Thomson

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

Thomson is highly susceptible to heatwaves, with a significant number of days exceeding 35°C projected.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Reduced cooling breezes
Data source

flood Risk

Thomson faces a moderate flood risk, primarily due to its proximity to the Barwon River and potential for flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
  • ·Urbanisation
Data source

coastal Risk

Thomson is located inland and has no direct exposure to coastal erosion or sea-level rise.

Data source

bushfire Risk

The risk of bushfire is relatively low, with limited direct bushland interface within the suburb itself.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Proximity to peri-urban areas
  • ·Vegetation management
Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Increasing premiums expected due to flood and heat risks.

Price Impact

Potential negative impact on properties in high-risk flood zones; heat resilience may become a selling point.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps for specific property risk.
  • 2.Assess property's heat resilience (insulation, shading, cooling).
  • 3.Review insurance policy details and costs.
  • 4.Understand local council's climate adaptation plans.

How the region's climate is projected to change

Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.

Temperature

+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030

Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.

Rainfall

Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030

The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.

Fire weather

Harsher, magnitude uncertain

High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.

Sea level

+0.12 m by 2030

At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.

Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →

Adaptation Recommendations

Enhance Urban Green Infrastructure

Near-term

Increase tree canopy cover and green spaces to mitigate the urban heat island effect and improve stormwater management.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

Upgrade Flood Defences and Drainage

Immediate

Invest in upgrading and maintaining flood levees, stormwater drainage systems, and permeable surfaces to better manage increased rainfall intensity.

Est. cost: $$$

Learn more

Promote Heat-Resilient Building Design

Near-term

Encourage or mandate building designs that incorporate passive cooling, high-performance insulation, and reflective roofing materials.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

Develop Community Heatwave Response Plan

Immediate

Establish clear communication channels and designated cooling centres for vulnerable residents during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: $

Learn more

Review and Update Emergency Management Plans

Near-term

Ensure local emergency services and council plans adequately address the projected increases in flood and heat risks.

Est. cost: $

Learn more

About Thomson's Climate Risk Profile

Thomson, a suburb within the City of Greater Geelong, presents a mixed climate risk profile for its residents. The most pressing concern is the increasing threat of extreme heat. With a projected rise in average temperatures and a higher frequency of heatwave days, the urban environment of Thomson is likely to exacerbate the urban heat island effect, leading to significant health and infrastructure challenges. This susceptibility is compounded by the suburb's location within Victoria, a state already experiencing the impacts of a warming climate.

Flood risk is another significant factor for Thomson. Its geographical position near the Barwon River means that periods of intense rainfall or riverine flooding can pose a threat to properties and infrastructure. While the immediate risk might be moderate, climate change projections indicate an increase in the intensity of rainfall events, which could elevate the severity and frequency of flooding in low-lying areas of the suburb. Understanding local topography and drainage patterns is crucial for effective mitigation.

In contrast, the risks associated with bushfires and coastal impacts are considerably lower for Thomson. The suburb is not directly adjacent to large areas of dense bushland, and its inland location shields it from the direct effects of sea-level rise and coastal erosion. However, it's important to note that even areas with low direct bushfire risk can be affected by smoke or emergency service responses to nearby incidents.

Overall, Thomson's climate resilience strategy should prioritise adaptation measures for heat and flood risks. This includes enhancing green infrastructure, improving building resilience to heat, and ensuring robust flood management systems are in place and maintained. Community awareness and preparedness are also vital components in mitigating the impacts of these climate hazards.

Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the main flood risk for Thomson residents?

The primary flood risk in Thomson stems from potential inundation from the Barwon River, particularly in areas close to its banks, and from localised flash flooding due to intense rainfall overwhelming drainage systems.

How will climate change affect heat in Thomson?

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in Thomson, leading to more days over 35°C and exacerbating the urban heat island effect, making the suburb hotter than surrounding rural areas.

Is Thomson prone to bushfires?

Thomson itself has a relatively low direct bushfire risk due to limited adjacent bushland. However, properties on the outskirts may be closer to vegetated areas, and the broader region is considered bushfire-prone.

What can I do to prepare my home for heatwaves in Thomson?

Consider improving insulation, installing efficient cooling systems, planting shade trees, using reflective window coverings, and ensuring adequate ventilation. Staying hydrated and checking on neighbours is also crucial.

Does Thomson face risks from sea-level rise?

No, Thomson is located inland and does not face direct risks from sea-level rise or coastal erosion. Its climate risks are primarily related to flooding and heat.

Where can I find the official flood map for Thomson?

The City of Greater Geelong provides flood overlay maps on their planning scheme website, which can help identify specific areas within Thomson that are at higher risk of inundation.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Thomson, use our analysis tool.

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Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections