Tenby Point Climate Risk and Resilience
Tenby Point faces a medium overall climate risk, primarily driven by significant heat and coastal hazards. While bushfire risk is lower, increasing temperatures and sea level rise pose substantial threats to the area's future.
Is Tenby Point Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Tenby Point, Victoria, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Tenby Point
Flood
Moderate flood risk due to proximity to coastal waters and potential for storm surge.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
Bushfire
Low to moderate bushfire risk, with some surrounding vegetation.
Key drivers:
- ·Vegetation proximity
- ·Dry conditions
Heat
High heat risk, with significant increases in extreme heat days projected.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Coastal
High coastal erosion and inundation risk due to exposed coastline and sea level rise.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm surge
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Tenby Point
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
High heat risk, with significant increases in extreme heat days projected.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Urban heat island effect (minor)
flood Risk
Moderate flood risk due to proximity to coastal waters and potential for storm surge.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
- ·Coastal inundation
coastal Risk
High coastal erosion and inundation risk due to exposed coastline and sea level rise.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm surge
- ·Coastal erosion
bushfire Risk
Low to moderate bushfire risk, with some surrounding vegetation.
Primary Drivers
- ·Vegetation proximity
- ·Dry conditions
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Increasing premiums and potential for reduced coverage in high-risk coastal zones.
Price Impact
Potential negative impact on property values in highly exposed areas, especially with increasing insurance costs.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Review flood and coastal hazard maps.
- 2.Check current and future insurance costs.
- 3.Assess proximity to bushland and fire risk.
- 4.Investigate local council's climate adaptation plans.
- 5.Consider property elevation and drainage.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Coastal Dune Restoration and Protection
Near-termImplement programs to restore and enhance coastal dunes with native vegetation to act as natural buffers against storm surges and erosion.
Est. cost: $50,000 - $150,000
Learn moreUpgrade Stormwater Drainage Systems
Near-termInvest in upgrading and maintaining local stormwater infrastructure to better manage increased rainfall intensity and reduce localized flooding.
Est. cost: $100,000 - $300,000
Learn morePromote Water-Wise Landscaping and Green Infrastructure
ImmediateEncourage residents and developers to adopt water-wise landscaping practices and incorporate green infrastructure (e.g., rain gardens) to mitigate heat and manage stormwater.
Est. cost: $10,000 - $50,000 (for council initiatives)
Learn moreDevelop Community Heatwave Response Plan
ImmediateEstablish a community-based plan to support vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including identifying cooling centers and communication strategies.
Est. cost: $5,000 - $20,000
Learn moreReview and Update Building Regulations for Coastal Areas
Long-termWork with state authorities to review and potentially update building regulations to account for increased flood and erosion risks in coastal developments.
Est. cost: Variable (policy development)
Learn moreAbout Tenby Point's Climate Risk Profile
Tenby Point, located within the Bass Coast Shire, is a coastal locality with a growing population. Its geographical position exposes it to a range of climate-related risks, with coastal inundation and erosion being prominent concerns due to its proximity to Western Port Bay and the Bass Strait.
The suburb experiences a temperate climate, but projections indicate a significant increase in average temperatures and the frequency of extreme heat days. This elevates the risk of heat stress for residents and can impact local ecosystems and infrastructure. The surrounding natural vegetation, while contributing to the area's appeal, also presents a low to moderate bushfire risk, particularly during prolonged dry periods.
Sea level rise is a critical factor for Tenby Point. Combined with increased storm intensity, it exacerbates the risk of coastal flooding and erosion, threatening properties and public spaces along the foreshore. Understanding these risks is crucial for effective planning and adaptation measures.
While Tenby Point has not experienced major historical climate-related disasters directly within its boundaries, the broader Bass Coast region has faced challenges from storms and heatwaves. Future climate projections suggest an intensification of these events, necessitating proactive adaptation strategies to build resilience within the community.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Bass Coast Shire Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary flood risk for Tenby Point?
The primary flood risk for Tenby Point is coastal inundation and storm surge, particularly affecting low-lying areas near Western Port Bay.
How will sea level rise affect Tenby Point?
Sea level rise will increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding and erosion, impacting properties and infrastructure along the foreshore.
Is Tenby Point prone to bushfires?
Tenby Point has a low to moderate bushfire risk, mainly due to its proximity to coastal heathland and scattered vegetation. Residents should still be prepared during high-risk periods.
What are the projected changes in temperature for Tenby Point?
Temperatures in Tenby Point are projected to increase, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to health and well-being.
What can I do to protect my property from coastal erosion in Tenby Point?
Consider landscaping with native, salt-tolerant plants, ensure proper drainage, and stay informed about council plans for coastal protection measures. For significant risks, consult with coastal engineers.
Where can I find the official flood maps for Tenby Point?
Official flood maps for Tenby Point can be found on the Bass Coast Shire Council website under their planning scheme maps section.
Get your property's risk report
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections