Climate Risk Assessment: Carrum, VIC
Carrum faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and coastal hazards. Rising sea levels and increased rainfall intensity are key concerns. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.
Is Carrum Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Carrum, Victoria, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
What the mapping shows for Carrum
Part of Carrum is mapped as subject to coastal inundation.
0.5% of Carrum is mapped as subject to coastal inundation at current sea level
Victorian Coastal Inundation, State of Victoria (DEECA), CC BY 4.0, retrieved 2026-10-21
This is a share of the suburb's land area from a published state dataset, not an assessment of any property. A ClimateNest report scores the individual address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Check an address in Carrum →Climate Hazard Breakdown for Carrum
Flood
Carrum faces a notable risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
Bushfire
Bushfire risk in Carrum is relatively low due to its coastal location and limited vegetation. However, increased temperatures and drier conditions could slightly elevate the risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
Heat
Carrum is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. The increasing average temperatures pose a risk to vulnerable populations.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Coastal
Carrum is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise and storm surges. The low-lying coastal areas are particularly at risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Storm surges
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Carrum
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Carrum is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. The increasing average temperatures pose a risk to vulnerable populations.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Carrum faces a notable risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Storm surges
coastal Risk
Carrum is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise and storm surges. The low-lying coastal areas are particularly at risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Storm surges
- ·Coastal erosion
bushfire Risk
Bushfire risk in Carrum is relatively low due to its coastal location and limited vegetation. However, increased temperatures and drier conditions could slightly elevate the risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Wind patterns
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Premiums are likely to increase due to flood and coastal risks.
Price Impact
Properties closer to the coast may experience price reductions.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood history of the property.
- 2.Assess coastal erosion risk.
- 3.Inquire about council's climate adaptation plans.
- 4.Evaluate energy efficiency of the building.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve Drainage Infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreCoastal Protection Measures
Near-termImplement coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to mitigate erosion and inundation.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreHeatwave Preparedness Plan
ImmediateDevelop and implement a heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreCommunity Awareness Programs
Long-termConduct community awareness programs to educate residents about climate risks and adaptation strategies.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Carrum's Climate Risk Profile
Carrum, a coastal suburb in Victoria, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding, coastal erosion, and heatwaves. Sea level rise and more intense rainfall events are expected to exacerbate these issues.
The suburb's low-lying coastal geography makes it particularly susceptible to flooding from both heavy rainfall and storm surges. Climate change projections indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, posing a significant threat to property and infrastructure.
Heatwaves are also a growing concern, with rising average temperatures and more frequent periods of extreme heat expected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Coastal erosion is another significant threat, with sea level rise and increased storm activity potentially leading to the loss of land and damage to coastal infrastructure. Addressing these challenges will require a coordinated effort from local government, residents, and other stakeholders.
Adaptation measures, such as improved drainage systems, coastal protection works, and heatwave preparedness plans, are essential to mitigate the impacts of climate change in Carrum. Raising awareness and promoting community resilience are also crucial steps in preparing for a changing climate.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Kingston City Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Carrum?
The main risks are flooding, coastal erosion, and heatwaves, driven by sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity.
How is the council preparing for climate change?
Kingston City Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation plans, including drainage upgrades and coastal protection measures.
What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves?
Residents can stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.
Are there any flood maps available for Carrum?
Yes, flood maps are available on the Kingston City Council website.
How will climate change affect property values in Carrum?
Properties closer to the coast may experience price reductions due to increased flood and erosion risks.
Get your property's risk report
This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Carrum, use our analysis tool.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections