Climate Risk in Dover, TAS
Dover, TAS, faces a moderate overall climate risk. The primary concerns are coastal hazards and bushfire risk, both of which are expected to increase with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.
Is Dover Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Dover, Tasmania, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
What the mapping shows for Dover
Part of Dover is mapped as subject to coastal inundation.
1.4% of Dover is mapped as subject to coastal inundation (coastal inundation hazard band, including 1% AEP storm tide at 2100)
4.1% of Dover is mapped as subject to coastal erosion (coastal erosion hazard band mapped for the Tasmanian planning system)
Tasmanian Coastal Inundation Hazard Bands (20161201), State of Tasmania (Department of Premier and Cabinet), Creative Commons Attribution 4.0, retrieved 2026-10-23
This is a share of the suburb's land area from a published state dataset, not an assessment of any property. A ClimateNest report scores the individual address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Check an address in Dover →Climate Hazard Breakdown for Dover
Flood
Dover faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall and riverine overflow. The risk is expected to increase with climate change due to more intense rainfall events.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
Bushfire
Dover has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can exacerbate the risk. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
Heat
Dover experiences a low to moderate risk of heatwaves. While not as extreme as other parts of Australia, heatwaves can still pose a risk to vulnerable populations. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·More frequent heatwaves
Coastal
Dover faces a high risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. Its low-lying coastal location makes it particularly vulnerable. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Coastal erosion
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Dover
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Dover experiences a low to moderate risk of heatwaves. While not as extreme as other parts of Australia, heatwaves can still pose a risk to vulnerable populations. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·More frequent heatwaves
flood Risk
Dover faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall and riverine overflow. The risk is expected to increase with climate change due to more intense rainfall events.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Riverine flooding
coastal Risk
Dover faces a high risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. Its low-lying coastal location makes it particularly vulnerable. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Coastal erosion
- ·Storm surges
bushfire Risk
Dover has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can exacerbate the risk. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Strong winds
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.
Price Impact
Property values may be negatively impacted by climate risks, particularly coastal properties.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to coastal hazards.
- 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
- 4.Consider the long-term climate risks when making a purchase decision.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Coastal Protection Measures
ImmediateImplement coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to reduce the impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreBushfire Mitigation
Near-termImplement bushfire mitigation measures, such as fuel reduction burns and vegetation management, to reduce the risk of bushfires.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreImproved Drainage Infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade drainage infrastructure to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreCommunity Awareness and Preparedness
Long-termRaise community awareness about climate risks and promote preparedness measures, such as emergency planning and evacuation procedures.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Dover's Climate Risk Profile
Dover, located in Tasmania, is a coastal town that faces several climate-related risks. The most significant threat is coastal inundation and erosion due to sea level rise. The town's low-lying geography makes it particularly vulnerable to these impacts.
Bushfire risk is also a major concern for Dover. The surrounding bushland creates a high fire hazard, especially during the dry summer months. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires in the region, posing a greater threat to life and property.
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Tasmania, including Dover. While not as extreme as in other parts of Australia, heatwaves can still pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Flooding is another risk factor for Dover, particularly from heavy rainfall events. The town's drainage infrastructure may be inadequate to handle increased rainfall intensity, leading to localized flooding. Riverine flooding from the nearby Esperance River is also a concern.
Addressing these climate risks requires a multi-faceted approach, including adaptation measures such as coastal protection, bushfire mitigation, and improved drainage infrastructure. Community awareness and preparedness are also crucial for reducing the impacts of climate change in Dover.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Huon Valley Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate risks facing Dover?
Dover faces several climate risks, including coastal inundation, bushfire risk, heatwaves, and flooding. Sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal properties, while bushfires can cause property damage and evacuations. Heatwaves can impact vulnerable populations, and heavy rainfall can lead to localized flooding.
How is climate change expected to impact Dover in the future?
Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in Dover. Sea level rise will exacerbate coastal flooding and erosion, while bushfire risk will continue to increase. Heatwaves will become more severe, and overall climate risk will be substantially higher.
What can residents do to prepare for climate change in Dover?
Residents can take several steps to prepare for climate change, including developing emergency plans, clearing vegetation around their homes, and purchasing flood insurance. It is also important to stay informed about climate risks and follow the advice of local authorities.
What is the local council doing to address climate change in Dover?
The Huon Valley Council is implementing various measures to address climate change, including coastal protection, bushfire mitigation, and improved drainage infrastructure. The council is also working to raise community awareness about climate risks and promote preparedness measures.
Where can I find more information about climate change in Dover?
You can find more information about climate change in Dover on the Huon Valley Council website, the Tasmanian Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections