Climate Risk Profile: Patonga, NSW
Patonga is a coastal suburb located on the Central Coast of New South Wales. It faces several climate-related risks, including flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. Sea level rise poses a significant threat to the suburb's low-lying areas.
Is Patonga Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Patonga, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Patonga
Flood
Patonga faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to Patonga Creek and the Hawkesbury River estuary. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
Bushfire
Patonga has a moderate bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.
Key drivers:
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Increased temperatures
Heat
Patonga is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Patonga is highly vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. The low-lying coastal areas are at risk of permanent inundation and increased storm surge impacts.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Patonga
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Patonga is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Patonga faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to Patonga Creek and the Hawkesbury River estuary. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Urban development
coastal Risk
Patonga is highly vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. The low-lying coastal areas are at risk of permanent inundation and increased storm surge impacts.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
- ·Erosion
bushfire Risk
Patonga has a moderate bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Wind patterns
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
- 3.Inquire about past flood or bushfire events.
- 4.Consider the cost of insurance and potential climate-related impacts on property value.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve Drainage Infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce flood risk.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreImplement Coastal Protection Measures
Near-termConstruct seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against erosion and inundation.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreDevelop a Heatwave Management Plan
ImmediateEstablish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable residents during heatwaves.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreManage Vegetation to Reduce Bushfire Risk
Near-termClear vegetation around homes and create firebreaks to reduce the risk of bushfires.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreRaise Community Awareness
Long-termEducate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Patonga's Climate Risk Profile
Patonga is a picturesque coastal village situated at the mouth of the Hawkesbury River on the Central Coast of New South Wales. The suburb is known for its beautiful beach, tranquil waterways, and surrounding bushland.
However, Patonga faces increasing challenges from climate change. Rising sea levels threaten the suburb's low-lying coastal areas, increasing the risk of inundation and erosion. More frequent and intense heatwaves pose a health risk to residents, particularly the elderly and vulnerable.
The surrounding bushland also makes Patonga susceptible to bushfires, especially during hot, dry periods. Changes in rainfall patterns can exacerbate flood risks, impacting homes and infrastructure.
Addressing these climate risks requires a coordinated effort from local government, residents, and businesses. Implementing adaptation measures, such as improving drainage infrastructure, managing vegetation, and raising awareness about climate risks, is crucial to protecting Patonga's future.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Central Coast Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate risks facing Patonga?
Patonga faces several climate risks, including flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. Sea level rise poses a significant threat to the suburb's low-lying areas.
How is the Central Coast Council addressing climate change?
The Central Coast Council has developed a climate strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. This includes measures to improve drainage infrastructure, manage vegetation, and raise community awareness.
What can residents do to prepare for climate change?
Residents can take several steps to prepare for climate change, such as checking flood maps and bushfire prone area designations, assessing their property's vulnerability to coastal erosion, and inquiring about past flood or bushfire events.
Where can I find more information about climate risks in Patonga?
You can find more information about climate risks in Patonga on the Central Coast Council website, the NSW State Emergency Service website, and the NSW Rural Fire Service website.
How will sea level rise affect Patonga?
Sea level rise is projected to inundate low-lying coastal areas of Patonga, increasing the risk of erosion and flooding. This could impact homes, businesses, and infrastructure.
What is the council doing to protect Patonga Beach from erosion?
The council is investigating various coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to protect Patonga Beach from erosion. These measures are subject to environmental assessments and community consultation.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections