Climate Risk in Manly, NSW
Manly faces a moderate climate risk, primarily driven by coastal hazards, heatwaves, and flooding. Sea level rise and increased storm intensity pose significant threats to coastal areas. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense heatwaves during summer.
Is Manly Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Manly, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Manly
Flood
Manly faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
Bushfire
Bushfire risk in Manly is relatively low due to its urban environment and limited vegetation. However, areas bordering bushland are still susceptible.
Key drivers:
- ·Proximity to bushland
- ·Dry vegetation
Heat
Manly experiences high heat risk, particularly during summer months. Urban areas retain heat, leading to elevated temperatures and heat stress.
Key drivers:
- ·Urban heat island effect
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Coastal
Manly is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards due to its location on the coast. Sea level rise and storm surges pose significant threats to infrastructure and property.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Manly
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Manly experiences high heat risk, particularly during summer months. Urban areas retain heat, leading to elevated temperatures and heat stress.
Primary Drivers
- ·Urban heat island effect
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Rising average temperatures
flood Risk
Manly faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Urban development
coastal Risk
Manly is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards due to its location on the coast. Sea level rise and storm surges pose significant threats to infrastructure and property.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
- ·Coastal erosion
bushfire Risk
Bushfire risk in Manly is relatively low due to its urban environment and limited vegetation. However, areas bordering bushland are still susceptible.
Primary Drivers
- ·Proximity to bushland
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Wind patterns
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase in high-risk areas.
Price Impact
Properties in coastal areas may experience price fluctuations due to climate risks.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to sea level rise and coastal erosion.
- 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
- 4.Consider energy efficiency and water conservation measures.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Upgrade Coastal Defenses
Near-termInvest in seawalls, beach nourishment, and other coastal protection measures to mitigate erosion and flooding.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreImprove Heatwave Preparedness
ImmediateDevelop a heatwave management plan, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreEnhance Flood Management
Near-termImprove drainage infrastructure and implement flood early warning systems.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn morePromote Water Conservation
Long-termEncourage residents and businesses to adopt water-saving measures to reduce demand during droughts.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreBushfire Preparedness
Near-termEnsure properties bordering bushland have adequate fire breaks and residents have bushfire survival plans.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Manly's Climate Risk Profile
Manly, a coastal suburb in New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include coastal erosion, flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires.
Sea level rise poses a significant threat to Manly's beaches and coastal infrastructure. Increased storm surges can inundate low-lying areas, causing damage to property and disrupting daily life. Coastal erosion is already evident in some areas, and this is expected to worsen with rising sea levels.
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, particularly during the summer months. The urban heat island effect exacerbates the problem, leading to elevated temperatures and increased heat stress for residents. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions, are particularly at risk.
Flooding is another concern, especially during periods of heavy rainfall. Low-lying areas are susceptible to flash flooding, which can damage property and disrupt transportation. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall events, further increasing the risk of flooding.
While bushfire risk is relatively low compared to other parts of NSW, areas bordering bushland are still vulnerable. Dry vegetation and strong winds can create conditions conducive to bushfires, posing a threat to homes and businesses.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Northern Beaches Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Manly?
The main climate change risks in Manly include sea level rise, coastal erosion, increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves, and flooding.
How will sea level rise affect Manly?
Sea level rise will exacerbate coastal erosion, inundate low-lying areas, and damage coastal infrastructure.
What is the council doing to address climate change?
The Northern Beaches Council has a climate change strategy that outlines actions to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.
How can I prepare for heatwaves in Manly?
Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and check on vulnerable neighbors.
Where can I find information about flood risks in Manly?
You can find information about flood risks on the Northern Beaches Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.
Are there any bushfire risks in Manly?
While Manly is largely urbanised, areas bordering Garigal National Park are at risk. Check the NSW RFS website for bushfire prone areas.
Get your property's risk report
This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Manly, use our analysis tool.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections