Climate Risk in Ocean Shores, NSW
Ocean Shores is a coastal suburb in New South Wales that faces a number of climate-related risks. The most significant risks are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change.
Is Ocean Shores Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Ocean Shores, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Ocean Shores
Flood
Ocean Shores faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Marshalls Creek and the Brunswick River. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
Bushfire
The bushfire risk in Ocean Shores is moderate, with areas of bushland surrounding residential zones. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can elevate the risk during the bushfire season.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Drier vegetation
Heat
Ocean Shores is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly during the summer months.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Ocean Shores is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. Low-lying areas are particularly at risk during storm surges and high tides.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
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Energy
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In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Ocean Shores
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Ocean Shores is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly during the summer months.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Ocean Shores faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Marshalls Creek and the Brunswick River. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Urban development
coastal Risk
Ocean Shores is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. Low-lying areas are particularly at risk during storm surges and high tides.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
- ·Erosion of coastal dunes
bushfire Risk
The bushfire risk in Ocean Shores is moderate, with areas of bushland surrounding residential zones. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can elevate the risk during the bushfire season.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Drier vegetation
- ·Stronger winds
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to climate risks.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
- 3.Inquire about past flood or bushfire events.
- 4.Consider the cost of insurance and potential for increased premiums.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve Flood Defenses
Near-termInvest in infrastructure to mitigate flooding, such as levees, drainage systems, and flood-resistant building designs.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreDevelop Heat Action Plan
ImmediateImplement a heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreStrengthen Coastal Defenses
Long-termImplement strategies to protect the coastline from erosion, such as beach nourishment, dune stabilization, and seawalls.
Est. cost: Very High
Learn moreEnhance Bushfire Preparedness
Near-termImplement bushfire prevention measures, such as hazard reduction burns, community education programs, and improved building codes.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn morePromote Water Conservation
Long-termEncourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during droughts and heatwaves.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Ocean Shores's Climate Risk Profile
Ocean Shores, located in the Northern Rivers region of New South Wales, is a beautiful coastal community known for its beaches and relaxed lifestyle. However, like many coastal areas, Ocean Shores is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
The primary climate risks facing Ocean Shores include flooding from the Brunswick River and Marshalls Creek, increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves, bushfire risk from surrounding bushland, and coastal erosion due to sea level rise. These risks pose a threat to the community's infrastructure, economy, and way of life.
Flooding is a significant concern, as intense rainfall events can cause the Brunswick River and Marshalls Creek to overflow, inundating low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this risk by increasing rainfall intensity and sea levels. Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and intense, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
The surrounding bushland presents a bushfire risk, especially during hot, dry periods with strong winds. Coastal erosion is another major concern, as sea level rise threatens to erode beaches and inundate low-lying coastal areas. This can damage infrastructure, property, and natural ecosystems.
Addressing these climate risks requires a coordinated effort from all levels of government, as well as the community. This includes investing in infrastructure to mitigate flooding and coastal erosion, implementing strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and educating the community about the risks of climate change and how to prepare for them.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Byron Shire Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Ocean Shores?
The main climate change risks in Ocean Shores are flooding, heatwaves, bushfires, and coastal erosion.
How is climate change expected to impact property values in Ocean Shores?
Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions due to increased flood risk, coastal erosion, and bushfire danger.
What can I do to protect my home from flooding in Ocean Shores?
You can install flood barriers, raise electrical outlets, and ensure proper drainage around your property.
How can I prepare for a heatwave in Ocean Shores?
Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.
What should I do if there is a bushfire in Ocean Shores?
Follow the instructions of emergency services, evacuate if necessary, and have a bushfire survival plan in place.
Where can I find information about flood maps in Ocean Shores?
Flood maps are available on the Byron Shire Council website.
Get your property's risk report
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections