Climate Risk in Oak Flats, NSW
Oak Flats faces a moderate climate risk profile, with the most significant threats stemming from flooding and heatwaves. Sea level rise and bushfire risk also contribute to the overall vulnerability of the suburb. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events in the future.
Is Oak Flats Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Oak Flats, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Oak Flats
Flood
Oak Flats is susceptible to flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to Lake Illawarra and associated waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
Bushfire
While not immediately adjacent to dense bushland, Oak Flats has some exposure to bushfire risk, particularly in areas bordering vegetated reserves. Embers can travel long distances, posing a threat even to properties not directly bordering bushland.
Key drivers:
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Heat
Oak Flats experiences high temperatures during summer, with the risk of heatwaves increasing. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions, are particularly at risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Coastal
Located near Lake Illawarra and the coast, Oak Flats is exposed to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and erosion. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable to inundation during storm surges.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Oak Flats
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Oak Flats experiences high temperatures during summer, with the risk of heatwaves increasing. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions, are particularly at risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Oak Flats is susceptible to flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to Lake Illawarra and associated waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Urban development
coastal Risk
Located near Lake Illawarra and the coast, Oak Flats is exposed to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and erosion. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable to inundation during storm surges.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
- ·Coastal erosion
bushfire Risk
While not immediately adjacent to dense bushland, Oak Flats has some exposure to bushfire risk, particularly in areas bordering vegetated reserves. Embers can travel long distances, posing a threat even to properties not directly bordering bushland.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Wind patterns
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased climate risks.
Price Impact
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Inquire about council's coastal management plans.
- 4.Obtain a building inspection to identify potential climate-related risks.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve Home Insulation
Near-termImprove home insulation to reduce energy consumption and keep homes cooler during heatwaves.
Est. cost: $5,000 - $10,000
Learn moreInstall Rainwater Tanks
Near-termInstall rainwater tanks to reduce stormwater runoff and provide a source of water during droughts.
Est. cost: $3,000 - $5,000
Learn moreDevelop Emergency Plans
ImmediateDevelop emergency plans for heatwaves, floods, and bushfires.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreSupport Coastal Management Initiatives
Long-termSupport council's coastal management initiatives to protect vulnerable areas from erosion and sea level rise.
Est. cost: N/A
Learn moreAbout Oak Flats's Climate Risk Profile
Oak Flats, located in the Shellharbour region of New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. Its proximity to Lake Illawarra and the coast makes it particularly vulnerable to flooding and coastal hazards. Rising sea levels and increased storm intensity are expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades.
Heatwaves are another significant concern for Oak Flats. The suburb experiences high temperatures during summer, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a threat to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
While not immediately adjacent to dense bushland, Oak Flats has some exposure to bushfire risk. Embers can travel long distances, posing a threat even to properties not directly bordering bushland. Dry vegetation and increased frequency of heatwaves can increase the risk of bushfires.
The Shellharbour City Council is working to address climate change risks through various initiatives, including coastal management plans and stormwater management upgrades. However, individual residents also need to take steps to prepare for and adapt to the changing climate. This includes measures such as improving home insulation, installing rainwater tanks, and developing emergency plans.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Shellharbour City Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Oak Flats?
The main climate change risks in Oak Flats are flooding, heatwaves, and sea level rise. Bushfire risk is also a concern.
How will climate change affect property values in Oak Flats?
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value. Insurance premiums may also increase due to increased climate risks.
What is the council doing to address climate change risks in Oak Flats?
The Shellharbour City Council is working to address climate change risks through various initiatives, including coastal management plans and stormwater management upgrades.
How can I prepare for heatwaves in Oak Flats?
You can prepare for heatwaves by improving home insulation, staying hydrated, and avoiding strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day. Cooling centers are often established during extreme heat events.
Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Oak Flats?
You can find more information about climate change risks in Oak Flats on the Shellharbour City Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.
Get your property's risk report
This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Oak Flats, use our analysis tool.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections