Climate Risk in North St Marys, NSW
North St Marys faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to increase with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events and take steps to mitigate their impact.
Is North St Marys Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for North St Marys, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for North St Marys
Flood
North St Marys faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
Bushfire
The suburb has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hotter and drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
Heat
North St Marys is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
North St Marys is not directly exposed to coastal risks.
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for North St Marys
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
North St Marys is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
- ·Reduced vegetation cover
flood Risk
North St Marys faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
- ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure
bushfire Risk
The suburb has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hotter and drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Fuel load
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.
Price Impact
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Review insurance options and costs.
- 4.Consider potential impacts of climate change on property value.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve drainage infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade drainage systems to reduce flood risk during heavy rainfall events.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreImplement heatwave early warning system
ImmediateDevelop a system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on how to stay safe.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreBushfire hazard reduction
Near-termConduct regular bushfire hazard reduction activities in areas surrounding the suburb.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn morePromote water conservation
Long-termEncourage residents to conserve water to reduce strain on water resources during droughts.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreCommunity education programs
Near-termRun community workshops on preparing for climate-related disasters.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout North St Marys's Climate Risk Profile
North St Marys, located in Western Sydney, is susceptible to several climate-related risks. The suburb's proximity to waterways increases its vulnerability to flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change projections indicate that rainfall intensity is likely to increase, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.
The presence of surrounding bushland also poses a bushfire risk to North St Marys. Hotter and drier conditions are expected to exacerbate this risk, increasing the likelihood of bushfires during the fire season. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety measures and have a plan in place in case of an emergency.
Furthermore, North St Marys is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves as a result of climate change. This can have significant impacts on human health, particularly for vulnerable populations. It is important to take precautions during heatwaves, such as staying hydrated and seeking shelter in cool environments.
While North St Marys is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and infrastructure, could still affect the suburb. It is essential for residents and businesses to adapt to these changes and build resilience to climate-related risks.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Penrith City Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in North St Marys?
The main risks are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a higher risk of bushfires.
How can I prepare my home for a flood?
Raise electrical appliances, store valuables above flood level, and have an evacuation plan.
What should I do during a heatwave?
Stay hydrated, seek shelter in cool environments, and avoid strenuous activity.
How can I protect my property from bushfires?
Clear vegetation around your home, maintain your roof and gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan.
Where can I find more information about climate change in Penrith?
Visit the Penrith City Council website or the NSW Department of Planning and Environment website.
Is North St Marys likely to become uninsurable due to climate change?
While insurance premiums may increase, it is unlikely that the suburb will become completely uninsurable. However, it is important to review your insurance policy regularly and ensure that you have adequate coverage.
Get your property's risk report
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections