Climate Risk in North Narrabeen, NSW

North Narrabeen, New South Wales· Northern Beaches· 2101
Updated May 2026

North Narrabeen faces increasing risks from climate change, particularly related to flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. The suburb's proximity to Narrabeen Lagoon and the coast makes it vulnerable to these hazards. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Is North Narrabeen Safe from Climate Risk?

Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for North Narrabeen, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

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Overall Risk Score

Address-level

Hazard Breakdown

Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.

Climate Hazard Breakdown for North Narrabeen

Flood

North Narrabeen faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Narrabeen Lagoon and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise

Bushfire

Bushfire risk in North Narrabeen is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures

Heat

North Narrabeen is experiencing increasing heatwave intensity and frequency. Rising temperatures pose a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Global warming
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Coastal

Coastal erosion and inundation are growing concerns in North Narrabeen due to sea level rise. Properties close to the beach are particularly vulnerable.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges

Wind

Data being compiled

Storm

Data being compiled

Social

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Energy

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In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for North Narrabeen

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

North Narrabeen is experiencing increasing heatwave intensity and frequency. Rising temperatures pose a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Global warming
  • ·Urban heat island effect
Data source

flood Risk

North Narrabeen faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Narrabeen Lagoon and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development
Data source

coastal Risk

Coastal erosion and inundation are growing concerns in North Narrabeen due to sea level rise. Properties close to the beach are particularly vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Erosion
Data source

bushfire Risk

Bushfire risk in North Narrabeen is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds
Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in high-risk areas due to flooding and coastal erosion.

Price Impact

Properties in vulnerable locations may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and coastal erosion risk assessments.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to bushfire.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise.
  • 4.Review insurance options and premiums.

How the region's climate is projected to change

Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.

Temperature

+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030

Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.

Rainfall

Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030

The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.

Fire weather

Harsher, magnitude uncertain

High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.

Sea level

+0.12 m by 2030

At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.

Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Protect coastal areas

Immediate

Implement coastal management strategies to protect the shoreline from erosion and sea level rise.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Near-term

Create a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Raise awareness about climate risks

Long-term

Educate residents about the risks of climate change and how to prepare for extreme weather events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Bushfire preparedness

Near-term

Ensure residents are prepared for bushfires through education and property maintenance.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About North Narrabeen's Climate Risk Profile

North Narrabeen, located on the Northern Beaches of Sydney, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb's low-lying areas and coastal location make it particularly susceptible to flooding and coastal erosion. Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves also pose a significant threat to the community.

Flooding is a major concern in North Narrabeen, with the Narrabeen Lagoon and nearby waterways prone to overflowing during heavy rainfall events. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of these rainfall events, exacerbating the risk of flooding in the suburb. Properties located near the lagoon and low-lying areas are at the highest risk.

Coastal erosion is another significant threat to North Narrabeen. Sea level rise is already causing increased erosion along the coastline, and this trend is expected to continue in the coming decades. Properties located close to the beach are particularly vulnerable to erosion and inundation.

Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and intense in North Narrabeen. Rising temperatures pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and people with chronic health conditions. The urban heat island effect can also exacerbate the impact of heatwaves in built-up areas.

Addressing these climate risks will require a coordinated effort from all levels of government, as well as the community. Mitigation measures, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, are essential to slow the pace of climate change. Adaptation measures, such as improving drainage infrastructure and protecting coastal areas, are also needed to reduce the impacts of climate change on North Narrabeen.

Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in North Narrabeen?

The main climate change risks in North Narrabeen are flooding, coastal erosion, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the coming decades due to rising temperatures and sea levels.

How will sea level rise affect North Narrabeen?

Sea level rise will cause increased coastal erosion and inundation in North Narrabeen, particularly along Narrabeen Beach. Properties located close to the beach are at the highest risk.

What can I do to prepare for flooding in North Narrabeen?

To prepare for flooding, you should check your property's flood risk, have an emergency plan, and consider flood insurance. You can also take steps to protect your property, such as raising electrical outlets and installing flood barriers.

Where can I find information about bushfire risks in North Narrabeen?

Information about bushfire risks in North Narrabeen can be found on the NSW Rural Fire Service website and the Northern Beaches Council website.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave in North Narrabeen?

During a heatwave, you should stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity, and seek out air-conditioned environments. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Is North Narrabeen a good place to invest in property given climate change?

While North Narrabeen is a desirable location, potential buyers should carefully consider the climate change risks, particularly flooding and coastal erosion, before investing in property. Properties in vulnerable locations may experience a decrease in value.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in North Narrabeen, use our analysis tool.

Check Your flood Risk Now

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Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections