Climate Risk in Narrabeen, NSW

Narrabeen, New South Wales· Northern Beaches· 2101
Updated Apr 2026

Narrabeen is a coastal suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate risks from climate change. The primary concerns are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion, which are expected to worsen in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Is Narrabeen Safe from Climate Risk?

Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Narrabeen, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

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Overall Risk Score

Address-level

Hazard Breakdown

Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Narrabeen

Flood

Narrabeen faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Narrabeen Lagoon and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise

Bushfire

Bushfire risk in Narrabeen is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures

Heat

Narrabeen experiences a high risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Increased temperatures can pose health risks to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Coastal

Narrabeen faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including erosion and inundation, due to its coastal location. Sea level rise and storm surges can exacerbate these risks.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Wind

Data being compiled

Storm

Data being compiled

Social

Data being compiled

Energy

Data being compiled

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Narrabeen

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

Narrabeen experiences a high risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Increased temperatures can pose health risks to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
Data source

flood Risk

Narrabeen faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Narrabeen Lagoon and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development
Data source

coastal Risk

Narrabeen faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including erosion and inundation, due to its coastal location. Sea level rise and storm surges can exacerbate these risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
Data source

bushfire Risk

Bushfire risk in Narrabeen is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds
Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone areas.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to sea level rise.
  • 3.Consider the cost of insurance and potential mitigation measures.

How the region's climate is projected to change

Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.

Temperature

+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030

Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.

Rainfall

Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030

The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.

Fire weather

Harsher, magnitude uncertain

High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.

Sea level

+0.12 m by 2030

At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.

Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flash flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Coastal Protection Measures

Near-term

Construct seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect beachfront properties from erosion and sea level rise.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Establish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Educate residents about bushfire risks and encourage them to develop bushfire survival plans.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Raise Awareness of Climate Risks

Long-term

Conduct community workshops and provide information about climate change impacts and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Narrabeen's Climate Risk Profile

Narrabeen, located on the Northern Beaches of Sydney, is vulnerable to several climate change impacts. The suburb's proximity to Narrabeen Lagoon and the coast makes it susceptible to flooding from heavy rainfall and rising sea levels. Heatwaves are also a significant concern, with temperatures projected to increase in the coming decades, posing risks to public health, especially for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.

Bushfire risk is present due to the surrounding bushland, although it is less severe than in some other parts of NSW. Coastal erosion is an ongoing issue, and sea level rise is expected to exacerbate this problem, threatening beachfront properties and infrastructure.

The Northern Beaches Council is developing strategies to mitigate these risks, including improving drainage infrastructure, implementing coastal management plans, and promoting community awareness. However, individual preparedness is also crucial for residents to protect themselves and their properties.

Climate projections indicate that Narrabeen will experience more frequent and intense extreme weather events in the future. This includes more severe heatwaves, increased rainfall intensity, and rising sea levels. These changes will have significant implications for the suburb's environment, economy, and community.

Adapting to these changes will require a collaborative effort from all levels of government, as well as the active participation of residents and businesses. By taking proactive measures, Narrabeen can build resilience and minimize the impacts of climate change.

Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Narrabeen?

The main risks are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion, which are expected to worsen with climate change.

How will sea level rise affect Narrabeen?

Sea level rise will increase the risk of coastal erosion and inundation, threatening beachfront properties and infrastructure.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Narrabeen?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Narrabeen?

The Northern Beaches Council provides flood maps and information on its website.

How can I protect my property from bushfires in Narrabeen?

Maintain firebreaks, clear vegetation around your home, and have a bushfire survival plan.

Is climate change going to affect my insurance premiums in Narrabeen?

Yes, it is likely that insurance premiums will increase due to the increased risks of flooding, coastal erosion, and bushfires.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Narrabeen, use our analysis tool.

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Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections