Climate Risk Profile: Manildra, NSW
Manildra is a rural suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. Projections indicate an increasing risk from these hazards in the future, requiring proactive adaptation measures.
Is Manildra Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Manildra, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Manildra
Flood
Manildra faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Mandagery Creek and relatively flat terrain. Intense rainfall events can cause the creek to overflow, impacting low-lying areas within the suburb.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development increasing runoff
Bushfire
The bushfire risk in Manildra is moderate. While not immediately surrounded by dense forest, the presence of grasslands and agricultural land can contribute to fire spread during dry and windy conditions.
Key drivers:
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Wind patterns
Heat
Manildra experiences a high risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Average maximum temperatures in January can be quite high, and the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Reduced rainfall
Coastal
As an inland suburb, Manildra has a very low risk of coastal hazards such as sea-level rise and coastal erosion.
Key drivers:
- ·Distance from the coast
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Manildra
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Manildra experiences a high risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Average maximum temperatures in January can be quite high, and the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Reduced rainfall
flood Risk
Manildra faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Mandagery Creek and relatively flat terrain. Intense rainfall events can cause the creek to overflow, impacting low-lying areas within the suburb.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development increasing runoff
coastal Risk
As an inland suburb, Manildra has a very low risk of coastal hazards such as sea-level rise and coastal erosion.
Primary Drivers
- ·Distance from the coast
bushfire Risk
The bushfire risk in Manildra is moderate. While not immediately surrounded by dense forest, the presence of grasslands and agricultural land can contribute to fire spread during dry and windy conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Wind patterns
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and heatwave risks.
Price Impact
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price fluctuations.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Inquire about council's climate adaptation plans.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve Flood Defenses
Near-termInvest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as levees and improved drainage systems.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreDevelop Heatwave Response Plan
ImmediateImplement a plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including public cooling centers and community outreach programs.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn morePromote Water Conservation
Near-termEncourage water conservation practices to reduce water stress during droughts and heatwaves.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreEnhance Bushfire Preparedness
Long-termSupport community efforts to reduce bushfire risk, such as hazard reduction burns and community education programs.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreAbout Manildra's Climate Risk Profile
Manildra, located in the central west region of New South Wales, is a rural community with a moderate overall climate risk profile. The primary concerns for Manildra are flooding from Mandagery Creek and increasing heatwave intensity. The suburb's relatively flat topography and proximity to the creek make it susceptible to inundation during periods of heavy rainfall.
Heatwaves are another significant concern, with average maximum temperatures in January frequently exceeding comfortable levels. Climate projections suggest that the frequency and intensity of heatwaves will increase in the coming decades, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.
While bushfire risk is present due to surrounding grasslands and agricultural land, it is considered moderate compared to other parts of NSW. Coastal risks are negligible due to Manildra's inland location.
Adapting to these changing climate conditions will be crucial for ensuring the long-term sustainability and resilience of Manildra. This includes implementing flood mitigation measures, developing heatwave response plans, and promoting water conservation strategies.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Cabonne Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Manildra?
The main climate change risks for Manildra are increased flooding from Mandagery Creek and more frequent and intense heatwaves.
How will climate change affect property values in Manildra?
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price fluctuations due to increased flood risk. Properties that are well-adapted to heatwaves may be more resilient.
What is the council doing to address climate change in Manildra?
Cabonne Council is developing climate adaptation plans and implementing measures to reduce flood risk and improve community resilience to heatwaves.
What can residents do to prepare for climate change in Manildra?
Residents can take steps to reduce their flood risk, conserve water, and prepare for heatwaves. This includes maintaining their properties, staying informed about emergency warnings, and participating in community preparedness programs.
Where can I find more information about climate change projections for Manildra?
You can find more information about climate change projections for Manildra on the CSIRO website and the NSW Government's climate change website.
Get your property's risk report
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What A$49 could save you from
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Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections