Climate Risk Profile: Lower Mangrove, NSW
Lower Mangrove faces significant climate risks, particularly from flooding and bushfires. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should take steps to prepare for these hazards.
Is Lower Mangrove Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Lower Mangrove, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Lower Mangrove
Flood
Lower Mangrove is at high risk of flooding due to its location near the Hawkesbury River and surrounding waterways. Heavy rainfall events can lead to significant riverine and flash flooding.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
Bushfire
The area surrounding Lower Mangrove has a moderate risk of bushfire due to the presence of bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of fire.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Drier vegetation
Heat
Lower Mangrove is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This will increase the risk of heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Lower Mangrove is not directly on the coast, so the risk of coastal hazards is low. However, sea level rise could indirectly affect the area through increased flooding along the Hawkesbury River.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm surge
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Lower Mangrove
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Lower Mangrove is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This will increase the risk of heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Lower Mangrove is at high risk of flooding due to its location near the Hawkesbury River and surrounding waterways. Heavy rainfall events can lead to significant riverine and flash flooding.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Urban development increasing runoff
coastal Risk
Lower Mangrove is not directly on the coast, so the risk of coastal hazards is low. However, sea level rise could indirectly affect the area through increased flooding along the Hawkesbury River.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm surge
bushfire Risk
The area surrounding Lower Mangrove has a moderate risk of bushfire due to the presence of bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of fire.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Drier vegetation
- ·Stronger winds
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the high flood and bushfire risk.
Price Impact
Properties in Lower Mangrove may experience a decrease in value due to climate change risks.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
- 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
- 3.Consider the potential impact of climate change on property value.
- 4.Ensure adequate insurance coverage.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve Flood Defenses
ImmediateConstruct levees and improve drainage systems to protect homes and businesses from flooding.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreReduce Bushfire Risk
Near-termImplement vegetation management programs and improve building codes to reduce the risk of bushfire damage.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreDevelop a Heat Action Plan
ImmediateCreate a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreRaise Awareness of Climate Risks
Long-termEducate residents about the risks of climate change and how to prepare for extreme weather events.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Lower Mangrove's Climate Risk Profile
Lower Mangrove, located in New South Wales, is vulnerable to a range of climate change impacts. The suburb's proximity to the Hawkesbury River makes it particularly susceptible to flooding, with heavy rainfall events posing a significant threat to homes and infrastructure.
Bushfire risk is also a concern, as the surrounding bushland can become highly flammable during hot, dry periods. Increased temperatures and prolonged droughts are expected to worsen bushfire conditions in the future.
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to public health, especially for vulnerable populations. Residents should take precautions to stay cool and hydrated during extreme heat events.
While Lower Mangrove is not directly on the coast, sea level rise could indirectly affect the area through increased flooding along the Hawkesbury River. It is important to monitor sea level rise projections and take appropriate adaptation measures.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Central Coast Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Lower Mangrove?
The main climate change risks in Lower Mangrove are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.
How can I prepare my home for flooding?
You can prepare your home for flooding by raising electrical outlets, installing flood barriers, and purchasing flood insurance. It is also important to have an emergency plan in place.
What should I do during a bushfire?
During a bushfire, it is important to stay informed and follow the advice of emergency services. If you are told to evacuate, do so immediately. If you are staying to defend your home, make sure you have a fire plan and the necessary equipment.
How can I stay cool during a heatwave?
During a heatwave, it is important to stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity, and spend time in air-conditioned environments. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.
Where can I find more information about climate change in Lower Mangrove?
You can find more information about climate change in Lower Mangrove on the Central Coast Council website, the NSW Department of Planning and Environment website, and the CSIRO website.
Get your property's risk report
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections