Climate Risk in Kurnell, NSW
Kurnell faces a number of climate-related risks, including flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change. Residents and property owners should take steps to prepare for these risks.
Is Kurnell Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Kurnell, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Kurnell
Flood
Kurnell faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Increased rainfall intensity and sea level rise are expected to exacerbate this risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
Bushfire
Kurnell has a moderate bushfire risk due to its proximity to the Royal National Park. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.
Key drivers:
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·High temperatures
Heat
Kurnell is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This will increase the risk of heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses, particularly for vulnerable populations.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Kurnell is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise and storm surge. This could damage property and infrastructure, and displace residents.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Storm surge
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Kurnell
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Kurnell is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This will increase the risk of heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses, particularly for vulnerable populations.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Kurnell faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Increased rainfall intensity and sea level rise are expected to exacerbate this risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Storm surge
coastal Risk
Kurnell is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise and storm surge. This could damage property and infrastructure, and displace residents.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Storm surge
- ·Coastal erosion
bushfire Risk
Kurnell has a moderate bushfire risk due to its proximity to the Royal National Park. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·High temperatures
- ·Strong winds
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums are likely to increase in the future due to climate change risks.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to sea level rise and coastal erosion.
- 3.Inquire about past flood or bushfire events.
- 4.Consider the cost of insurance and potential for increased premiums.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve drainage infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade drainage systems to reduce the risk of flash flooding during heavy rainfall events.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreStrengthen coastal defenses
Long-termConstruct seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against sea level rise and storm surge.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreDevelop a heatwave response plan
ImmediateImplement a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreReduce bushfire risk
Near-termImplement bushfire mitigation measures, such as clearing vegetation around properties and conducting controlled burns.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreRaise awareness of climate risks
ImmediateEducate residents about the risks of climate change and how to prepare for them.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Kurnell's Climate Risk Profile
Kurnell is a suburb located in the Sutherland Shire, south of Sydney. It is known for its beaches, national park, and industrial area. The suburb is vulnerable to a range of climate change impacts, including sea level rise, increased flooding, more intense heatwaves, and bushfires.
Sea level rise poses a significant threat to Kurnell, with low-lying areas at risk of inundation. Coastal erosion is also a concern, as rising sea levels and storm surges can damage beaches and infrastructure. Increased rainfall intensity can lead to more frequent and severe flooding, particularly in areas near waterways.
Heatwaves are expected to become more common and intense in Kurnell, increasing the risk of heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses. Bushfires are also a threat, particularly during hot, dry periods. The Royal National Park, which borders Kurnell, is a potential source of bushfires.
Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation measures. Mitigation involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions to slow down climate change. Adaptation involves taking steps to prepare for the impacts of climate change that are already happening or are expected to happen in the future. This includes measures such as building seawalls, improving drainage systems, and developing heatwave response plans.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Sutherland Shire Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Kurnell?
Kurnell faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion, all of which are expected to worsen with climate change.
How will sea level rise affect Kurnell?
Sea level rise could inundate low-lying areas of Kurnell, damage coastal infrastructure, and increase the risk of coastal erosion.
What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Kurnell?
Stay hydrated, stay cool, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves. Follow advice from NSW Health.
Is my property in Kurnell at risk of flooding?
Check the Sutherland Shire Council's flood maps to determine your property's flood risk. Consider flood insurance if you are in a flood-prone area.
How can I protect my home from bushfires in Kurnell?
Clear vegetation around your home, have a bushfire survival plan, and stay informed about bushfire risks from the NSW RFS.
Where can I find more information about climate change in Kurnell?
Consult the Sutherland Shire Council's website, the NSW Department of Planning and Environment, and the CSIRO for more information.
Get your property's risk report
This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Kurnell, use our analysis tool.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections