Climate Risk in Jolly Nose, New South Wales

Jolly Nose, New South Wales
Updated May 2026

Jolly Nose faces moderate risks from climate change, particularly related to flooding, bushfires, heatwaves and coastal hazards. These risks are projected to increase in the future, requiring proactive adaptation measures. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Is Jolly Nose Safe from Climate Risk?

Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Jolly Nose, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.

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What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

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Overall Risk Score

Address-level

Hazard Breakdown

Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Jolly Nose

Flood

Jolly Nose faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise

Bushfire

The risk of bushfires in Jolly Nose is moderate, given the presence of surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are projected to elevate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions

Heat

Jolly Nose is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Coastal

Located near the coast, Jolly Nose is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. These impacts are expected to worsen with climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge

Wind

Data being compiled

Storm

Data being compiled

Social

Data being compiled

Energy

Data being compiled

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Jolly Nose

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

Jolly Nose is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect
Data source

flood Risk

Jolly Nose faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure
Data source

coastal Risk

Located near the coast, Jolly Nose is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. These impacts are expected to worsen with climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion
Data source

bushfire Risk

The risk of bushfires in Jolly Nose is moderate, given the presence of surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are projected to elevate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load
Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the rising risk of flooding, bushfires, and coastal hazards.

Price Impact

Properties in low-lying areas or near bushland may experience a decrease in value due to climate change risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about past flood or bushfire events.
  • 4.Review insurance options and premiums.
  • 5.Consider the long-term climate risks when making a purchase decision.

How the region's climate is projected to change

Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.

Temperature

+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030

Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.

Rainfall

Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030

The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.

Fire weather

Harsher, magnitude uncertain

High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.

Sea level

+0.12 m by 2030

At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.

Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Improve drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Bushfire Management Strategies

Near-term

Reduce fuel loads and create firebreaks to protect properties from bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Response Plan

Immediate

Establish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Protect Coastal Ecosystems

Long-term

Restore and protect coastal vegetation to buffer against sea level rise and erosion.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Raise Community Awareness

Near-term

Educate residents about climate change risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Jolly Nose's Climate Risk Profile

Jolly Nose, located in New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb's proximity to waterways and coastal areas makes it susceptible to flooding and coastal erosion. Rising temperatures and drier conditions are also contributing to an elevated risk of bushfires.

Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and intense, posing a significant threat to public health, especially for vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect may exacerbate these impacts in densely built areas. Residents should take precautions during heatwaves, such as staying hydrated and seeking air-conditioned environments.

Climate change projections indicate that these risks will continue to escalate in the coming decades. Increased rainfall intensity is likely to worsen flooding, while sea level rise will exacerbate coastal erosion and inundation. Proactive adaptation measures are essential to mitigate these risks and protect the community.

These measures may include upgrading drainage infrastructure, implementing stricter building codes in flood-prone areas, and developing community awareness programs to prepare residents for extreme weather events. Protecting and restoring natural ecosystems, such as wetlands and coastal vegetation, can also help to buffer the impacts of climate change.

Individual households can also take steps to reduce their vulnerability, such as installing rainwater tanks, improving home insulation, and creating bushfire-resistant gardens. By working together, the community can build resilience and adapt to the challenges of a changing climate.

Staying informed about local weather conditions and emergency alerts is crucial for ensuring safety during extreme weather events. Residents should also have an emergency plan in place and know where to go for assistance if needed.

Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Jolly Nose?

The main climate change risks in Jolly Nose include flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion.

How will climate change affect property values in Jolly Nose?

Properties in low-lying areas or near bushland may experience a decrease in value due to climate change risks.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Jolly Nose?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Jolly Nose?

You can find information about flood risks on the MidCoast Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

How is the local council addressing climate change in Jolly Nose?

The MidCoast Council has a climate strategy that outlines actions to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

What kind of insurance should I have in Jolly Nose considering the climate risks?

You should ensure you have comprehensive home and contents insurance that covers flood, fire, and storm damage. Check the policy details carefully to understand the extent of coverage.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Jolly Nose, use our analysis tool.

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Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections