Climate Risk in Thornlie, Western Australia

Thornlie, Western Australia
Updated Mar 2026

Thornlie faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also a consideration. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in relation to heat and rainfall intensity. Coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location.

Is Thornlie Safe from Climate Risk?

Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Thornlie, Western Australia, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.

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What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

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Overall Risk Score

Address-level

Hazard Breakdown

Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Thornlie

Flood

Thornlie faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from local rainfall events and the potential for riverine flooding from the Canning River. Properties in low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development reducing natural drainage

Bushfire

Bushfire risk in Thornlie is moderate due to its proximity to bushland areas. While not directly adjacent to large forests, dry vegetation and strong winds can increase the risk during the bushfire season.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Strong seasonal winds

Heat

Thornlie is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. The urban environment contributes to the urban heat island effect, increasing nighttime temperatures and overall heat stress.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Coastal

Coastal risks are low in Thornlie due to its distance from the coast. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not direct threats to the suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from the coast

Wind

Data being compiled

Storm

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Social

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Energy

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In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Thornlie

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

Thornlie is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. The urban environment contributes to the urban heat island effect, increasing nighttime temperatures and overall heat stress.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect
Data source

flood Risk

Thornlie faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from local rainfall events and the potential for riverine flooding from the Canning River. Properties in low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development reducing natural drainage
  • ·Aging stormwater infrastructure
Data source

coastal Risk

Coastal risks are low in Thornlie due to its distance from the coast. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not direct threats to the suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast
Data source

bushfire Risk

Bushfire risk in Thornlie is moderate due to its proximity to bushland areas. While not directly adjacent to large forests, dry vegetation and strong winds can increase the risk during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Strong seasonal winds
  • ·Potential for ignition from human activity
Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and property maintenance requirements.
  • 3.Consider energy efficiency and cooling options for heatwaves.

How the region's climate is projected to change

Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.

Temperature

+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030

Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.

Rainfall

Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030

The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.

Fire weather

Harsher, magnitude uncertain

High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.

Sea level

+0.12 m by 2030

At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.

Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Stormwater Infrastructure

Near-term

Invest in upgrading stormwater drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Urban Greening Initiatives

Near-term

Increase tree canopy cover and green spaces to mitigate the urban heat island effect and provide shade during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Create a comprehensive heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Educate residents on bushfire safety and preparedness, including property maintenance, evacuation plans, and fire danger ratings.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Install Rainwater Tanks

Long-term

Encourage residents to install rainwater tanks to reduce stormwater runoff and conserve water.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Thornlie's Climate Risk Profile

Thornlie, located in the southeastern suburbs of Perth, Western Australia, is subject to a range of climate-related risks that are expected to intensify with climate change. The primary concerns for Thornlie are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfire risk. While coastal inundation is not a direct threat due to its inland location, the suburb must still prepare for the broader impacts of a changing climate.

Flooding is a significant concern for Thornlie, particularly due to increased rainfall intensity and potential riverine flooding from the Canning River. Properties in low-lying areas are especially vulnerable. The existing stormwater infrastructure may struggle to cope with more frequent and intense rainfall events, leading to localized flooding and property damage.

Heatwaves are another major risk for Thornlie. As average temperatures rise and heatwaves become more frequent and intense, the urban heat island effect will exacerbate the problem, leading to higher nighttime temperatures and increased heat stress for residents. This poses a particular threat to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Bushfire risk is moderate in Thornlie due to its proximity to bushland areas. While not directly adjacent to large forests, dry vegetation and strong winds can increase the risk during the bushfire season. It is crucial for residents to maintain their properties and be prepared for potential bushfire threats.

Addressing these climate risks requires a multi-faceted approach, including upgrading stormwater infrastructure, implementing urban greening initiatives to mitigate the urban heat island effect, and promoting community awareness and preparedness for extreme weather events. By taking proactive measures, Thornlie can enhance its resilience to the impacts of climate change and protect its residents and assets.

Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Thornlie?

The main climate risks facing Thornlie are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfire risk. Coastal inundation is not a direct threat due to its inland location.

How is the City of Canning addressing climate change?

The City of Canning is implementing various strategies to address climate change, including upgrading stormwater infrastructure, promoting urban greening, and developing a heat action plan.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves?

Residents can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, and checking on vulnerable neighbors. It's also important to understand the signs of heatstroke and heat exhaustion.

How can I protect my property from bushfire risk?

To protect your property from bushfire risk, maintain firebreaks, clear vegetation around your home, and have a bushfire survival plan in place. Stay informed about fire danger ratings and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Thornlie?

Information about flood risks in Thornlie can be found on the City of Canning website, including flood maps and information about flood preparedness.

Are there any financial incentives for installing rainwater tanks?

Check with the City of Canning and the Western Australian government for any available financial incentives or rebates for installing rainwater tanks.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Thornlie, use our analysis tool.

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Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

Climate Risk in Thornlie, WA | ClimateNest