Yarragon Climate Risk Profile
Yarragon, Victoria, faces a medium overall climate risk, with significant concerns around heatwaves and moderate risks from flooding and bushfires. While not directly impacted by coastal hazards, the suburb's future climate projections indicate an increasing risk across most categories.
Is Yarragon Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Yarragon, Victoria, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Yarragon
Flood
Yarragon faces a moderate to high risk of flooding, primarily due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Heavy rainfall events can overwhelm local drainage systems and lead to inundation.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased frequency and intensity of rainfall events
- ·Urbanisation leading to increased impervious surfaces
Bushfire
The suburb has a moderate bushfire risk due to its location on the fringe of vegetated areas and proximity to the Baw Baw National Park. While not in a high-risk zone, ember attack and direct flame contact are potential threats during extreme fire weather.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased frequency of extreme heat and dry conditions
- ·Proximity to bushland reserves
Heat
Yarragon experiences a high risk from heatwaves, with a significant number of days exceeding 35°C projected to increase. Limited tree canopy in some areas and the urban heat island effect contribute to higher temperatures.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves
Coastal
Yarragon is located inland and is not exposed to coastal erosion or sea-level rise risks.
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Yarragon
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Yarragon experiences a high risk from heatwaves, with a significant number of days exceeding 35°C projected to increase. Limited tree canopy in some areas and the urban heat island effect contribute to higher temperatures.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves
- ·Urban development and reduced green space
flood Risk
Yarragon faces a moderate to high risk of flooding, primarily due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Heavy rainfall events can overwhelm local drainage systems and lead to inundation.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased frequency and intensity of rainfall events
- ·Urbanisation leading to increased impervious surfaces
- ·Potential for riverine flooding from nearby waterways
coastal Risk
Yarragon is located inland and is not exposed to coastal erosion or sea-level rise risks.
Data sourcebushfire Risk
The suburb has a moderate bushfire risk due to its location on the fringe of vegetated areas and proximity to the Baw Baw National Park. While not in a high-risk zone, ember attack and direct flame contact are potential threats during extreme fire weather.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased frequency of extreme heat and dry conditions
- ·Proximity to bushland reserves
- ·Prevailing wind patterns during fire events
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Moderate to High risk of increased premiums and stricter policy conditions due to increasing flood and bushfire risks.
Price Impact
Potential for negative impact on property values in areas identified as higher risk for flooding or bushfire, particularly as awareness grows.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Review current and historical flood reports for the specific property.
- 2.Check bushfire attack level (BAL) rating if near vegetated areas.
- 3.Assess proximity to waterways and drainage systems.
- 4.Investigate local tree canopy cover and potential for urban heat island effect.
- 5.Understand local council's emergency management and climate adaptation plans.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Enhance Urban Greening and Tree Canopy
Near-termIncrease tree planting in public spaces, streets, and encourage private property owners to plant trees to mitigate the urban heat island effect and provide shade.
Est. cost: $$
Learn moreImprove Stormwater Management Systems
Near-termUpgrade existing drainage infrastructure and implement nature-based solutions like rain gardens and permeable pavements to better manage heavy rainfall and reduce localised flooding.
Est. cost: $$$
Learn moreDevelop Community Bushfire Preparedness Plans
ImmediateConduct community workshops on bushfire preparedness, including creating household fire plans, understanding Fire Danger Ratings, and evacuation strategies.
Est. cost: $
Learn morePromote Water-Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD)
Long-termIntegrate WSUD principles into new developments and retrofits to manage stormwater runoff, reduce flood risk, and improve water quality.
Est. cost: $$$
Learn moreEstablish Cooling Centres and Heatwave Action Plans
ImmediateIdentify and equip public spaces as cooling centres during extreme heat events and develop clear action plans for vulnerable residents.
Est. cost: $$
Learn moreAbout Yarragon's Climate Risk Profile
Yarragon, situated in Victoria's Baw Baw Shire, presents a mixed climate risk profile for its residents. The suburb is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of increasing temperatures and heatwaves, with projections indicating a rise in extreme heat days. This poses significant health risks, especially for vulnerable populations, and places a strain on infrastructure and energy resources.
Flood risk is another notable concern for Yarragon. Its geographical location, with proximity to local waterways and potentially lower-lying areas, makes it susceptible to inundation during periods of intense rainfall. While not classified as a major flood plain, localised flooding can disrupt transport, damage property, and impact essential services. The increasing intensity of rainfall events due to climate change exacerbates this risk.
The suburb also contends with a moderate bushfire risk. Located on the edge of vegetated areas and within a reasonable distance of larger natural reserves, Yarragon can be exposed to ember attack and, in severe cases, direct flame contact. While specific bushfire overlays might not cover the entire suburb, the general risk associated with the broader region's climate conditions necessitates preparedness.
In contrast, Yarragon is not exposed to coastal hazards such as sea-level rise or coastal erosion, given its inland location. This removes a significant layer of climate risk faced by many other Australian communities. However, the cumulative impact of heat, flood, and bushfire risks requires a comprehensive approach to climate adaptation and resilience building within the community.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Baw Baw Shire Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main flood risk in Yarragon?
The main flood risk in Yarragon is localised flooding due to heavy rainfall overwhelming drainage systems and potential overflow from Yarragon Creek, particularly in low-lying areas adjacent to the creek.
How likely are heatwaves to affect Yarragon in the future?
Climate projections indicate a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in Yarragon, making them a primary climate concern for the suburb.
Is Yarragon considered a high-risk bushfire area?
Yarragon has a moderate bushfire risk. While not in a high-risk zone, its proximity to vegetated areas means residents should be prepared for potential ember attack and fire events, especially during extreme weather.
What can I do to prepare my home for climate risks in Yarragon?
Prepare by having a household fire plan, ensuring your property's drainage is clear, considering heat-reflective materials for your home, and staying informed about local emergency warnings.
Does Yarragon experience coastal flooding or erosion?
No, Yarragon is located inland and is not exposed to coastal flooding, sea-level rise, or coastal erosion risks.
Where can I find the most up-to-date flood information for Yarragon?
The most up-to-date flood information and maps for Yarragon can typically be found on the Baw Baw Shire Council's website under their planning and emergency management sections.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections