Yarragon South Climate Risk Profile

Yarragon South, Victoria· Shire of Baw Baw· 3820
Updated June 2026

Yarragon South in Victoria faces moderate risks from flooding and bushfires, with increasing concerns due to climate change. While coastal impacts are minimal, residents should be aware of potential heatwave intensification and prepare accordingly.

Is Yarragon South Safe from Climate Risk?

Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Yarragon South, Victoria, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.

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What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

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Overall Risk Score

Address-level

Hazard Breakdown

Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Yarragon South

Flood

Moderate flood risk, primarily due to proximity to waterways and potential for flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urbanisation leading to increased runoff

Bushfire

Moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation and historical fire activity in the region.

Key drivers:

  • ·Warmer and drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel loads

Heat

Moderate heat risk, with potential for increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Coastal

Very low coastal risk due to significant distance from the coast.

Wind

Data being compiled

Storm

Data being compiled

Social

Data being compiled

Energy

Data being compiled

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Yarragon South

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

Moderate heat risk, with potential for increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
Data source

flood Risk

Moderate flood risk, primarily due to proximity to waterways and potential for flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urbanisation leading to increased runoff
Data source

coastal Risk

Very low coastal risk due to significant distance from the coast.

Data source

bushfire Risk

Moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation and historical fire activity in the region.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Warmer and drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel loads
Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Moderate to High premiums expected due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Potential for negative impact on property values in high-risk zones.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Review council flood maps and bushfire reports.
  • 2.Check property insurance history and premiums.
  • 3.Assess proximity to bushland and potential fire paths.
  • 4.Investigate local drainage and stormwater management.
  • 5.Consider building materials and fire-resistant landscaping.

How the region's climate is projected to change

Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.

Temperature

+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030

Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.

Rainfall

Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030

The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.

Fire weather

Harsher, magnitude uncertain

High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.

Sea level

+0.12 m by 2030

At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.

Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a Household Emergency Plan

Immediate

Create a plan that includes evacuation routes, communication strategies, and emergency kits for flood and bushfire events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve Property Flood Resilience

Near-term

Consider flood-proofing measures such as raising electrical outlets, installing flood barriers, and improving site drainage.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Bushfire-Resistant Landscaping

Near-term

Create defendable space around the property by managing vegetation, using fire-resistant plants, and maintaining gutters and roofs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Home Cooling Strategies

Near-term

Improve insulation, install efficient cooling systems, and utilize shading techniques to mitigate heat stress during summer.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Community Preparedness Workshops

Long-term

Participate in or organize local workshops focused on emergency preparedness, first aid, and climate change adaptation.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Yarragon South's Climate Risk Profile

Yarragon South, situated within the Shire of Baw Baw in Victoria, presents a mixed climate risk profile. The suburb experiences a moderate risk of flooding, primarily influenced by its proximity to local waterways and the potential for intense rainfall events to overwhelm drainage systems. This risk is projected to increase in the coming decades as climate change leads to more extreme weather patterns.

Bushfire risk is another significant consideration for Yarragon South. The surrounding natural landscape, characterized by vegetation and bushland areas, places the suburb within a zone prone to bushfire activity. Historical fire events in the broader Gippsland region underscore the importance of preparedness and vigilance. Climate change projections suggest an exacerbation of these risks through warmer temperatures and drier conditions, potentially leading to longer and more severe fire seasons.

Heatwaves pose a moderate and growing threat to Yarragon South. As average temperatures rise, the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events are expected to increase. This poses health risks to residents, particularly vulnerable populations, and places additional strain on infrastructure and energy resources. The urban environment can also contribute to the urban heat island effect, further intensifying heat during summer months.

In contrast, Yarragon South is well-removed from the coast, rendering direct coastal erosion and sea-level rise risks negligible. However, the broader climatic shifts impacting Victoria can still indirectly affect the region through changes in weather patterns and agricultural conditions.

Overall, residents of Yarragon South should prioritize understanding and mitigating the risks associated with flooding and bushfires. Proactive measures, informed by local council guidelines and emergency service advice, are crucial for enhancing resilience and ensuring community safety in the face of evolving climate challenges.

Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main flood risks in Yarragon South?

The main flood risks stem from flash flooding due to intense rainfall overwhelming local drainage systems and potential overflow from Neerim South Creek. Some lower-lying areas are more susceptible.

How close is Yarragon South to major bushfire zones?

Yarragon South is adjacent to several bushland reserves and is considered a bushfire-prone area. The risk increases during warmer, drier months, and the broader Gippsland region has a history of significant fires.

What is the projected increase in heatwave days for Yarragon South?

Climate projections indicate a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves by 2050, with more days exceeding 35°C and a higher risk of prolonged heat stress events.

Does Yarragon South face any sea-level rise or coastal erosion risks?

No, Yarragon South is located approximately 120 km inland from the coast, so it does not face direct risks from sea-level rise or coastal erosion.

Where can I find the official flood maps for Yarragon South?

Official flood information and maps relevant to Yarragon South can be found on the Shire of Baw Baw's website under their 'Public Notices' or 'Flood Information' sections.

What actions can I take to prepare my property for bushfires in Yarragon South?

Key actions include creating defendable space, maintaining your property (e.g., gutters, roofs), using fire-resistant building materials and landscaping, and having a well-practiced bushfire survival plan.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Yarragon South, use our analysis tool.

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Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

Yarragon South Climate Risk Assessment | Flood, Bushfire, Heat | ClimateNest