Narracan Climate Risk Profile
Narracan, Victoria, faces a significant bushfire risk due to its proximity to dense vegetation and increasing hot days. While flood risk is moderate, it's exacerbated by intense rainfall. Heatwave impacts are also projected to rise, though coastal risks are negligible.
Is Narracan Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Narracan, Victoria, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Narracan
Flood
Narracan experiences a medium risk of flooding, primarily from localised heavy rainfall and potential overflow from nearby creeks. The risk is moderate but can be exacerbated by upstream conditions.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased intensity of rainfall events
- ·Changes in land use upstream
Bushfire
Narracan is situated in a high bushfire risk area, with significant vegetation surrounding the suburb. The risk is amplified during hot, dry, and windy conditions.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased frequency of hot days
- ·Drier vegetation fuel loads
Heat
The suburb faces a medium risk from heatwaves, with a notable number of days exceeding 35°C projected to increase. Urban heat island effects are less pronounced due to surrounding vegetation.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·More frequent extreme heat events
Coastal
Narracan is inland and not exposed to coastal hazards such as sea-level rise or storm surges.
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Narracan
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
The suburb faces a medium risk from heatwaves, with a notable number of days exceeding 35°C projected to increase. Urban heat island effects are less pronounced due to surrounding vegetation.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·More frequent extreme heat events
- ·Reduced diurnal temperature variation
flood Risk
Narracan experiences a medium risk of flooding, primarily from localised heavy rainfall and potential overflow from nearby creeks. The risk is moderate but can be exacerbated by upstream conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased intensity of rainfall events
- ·Changes in land use upstream
- ·Inadequate stormwater drainage
coastal Risk
Narracan is inland and not exposed to coastal hazards such as sea-level rise or storm surges.
Data sourcebushfire Risk
Narracan is situated in a high bushfire risk area, with significant vegetation surrounding the suburb. The risk is amplified during hot, dry, and windy conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased frequency of hot days
- ·Drier vegetation fuel loads
- ·Proximity to dense bushland
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Increasing premiums and potential coverage limitations due to high bushfire risk.
Price Impact
Potential negative impact on property values in high-risk zones, particularly for properties lacking adequate bushfire resilience.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Review current and future bushfire risk assessments.
- 2.Check property's bushfire attack level (BAL) rating.
- 3.Verify flood resilience measures (e.g., site drainage, building materials).
- 4.Assess proximity to fire services and evacuation routes.
- 5.Inquire about insurance availability and cost.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Strengthen Bushfire Preparedness
ImmediateImplement and maintain defendable space around properties, upgrade building materials to meet higher BAL ratings, and ensure clear evacuation routes.
Est. cost: $5,000 - $50,000+
Learn moreImprove Stormwater Management
Near-termInvestigate and upgrade local drainage infrastructure to cope with increased intensity rainfall events. Promote permeable surfaces and water-sensitive urban design.
Est. cost: $10,000 - $100,000+
Learn moreEnhance Heatwave Resilience
Near-termPromote cool housing design, increase tree canopy cover in public spaces, and establish community cooling centres.
Est. cost: $2,000 - $20,000 per property/project
Learn moreCommunity Bushfire Education
ImmediateConduct regular workshops and information sessions on bushfire preparedness, survival planning, and post-fire recovery.
Est. cost: $500 - $5,000
Learn moreDevelop Local Flood Response Plan
Near-termCreate a specific local plan for flood events, including early warning systems, evacuation procedures, and community support networks.
Est. cost: $1,000 - $10,000
Learn moreAbout Narracan's Climate Risk Profile
Narracan, located in Victoria's Gippsland region, presents a complex climate risk profile, with bushfire being the most prominent concern. The suburb is nestled amongst significant bushland areas, increasing its vulnerability during periods of high fire danger. Climate change projections indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, coupled with drier vegetation, which collectively elevate the bushfire risk.
The flood risk in Narracan, while currently assessed as moderate, is influenced by localised heavy rainfall and the potential for creek overflows. As rainfall patterns shift towards more intense, shorter bursts, the capacity of existing drainage systems may be challenged, leading to increased flash flooding potential. Understanding the specific catchment dynamics and stormwater infrastructure is crucial for managing this risk.
Heatwaves pose a growing threat to Narracan. The number of days exceeding 35°C is expected to rise, impacting public health, infrastructure, and local ecosystems. While Narracan is not heavily urbanised, the general trend of rising temperatures and more frequent extreme heat events necessitates adaptation strategies focused on cooling and health.
Coastal hazards are not a direct concern for Narracan due to its inland location. However, broader regional climate impacts, such as changes in water availability or agricultural productivity, could indirectly affect the community. The focus for Narracan remains on managing terrestrial risks like bushfire and flood.
Overall, Narracan requires a proactive approach to climate resilience, prioritising bushfire preparedness and mitigation, alongside strategies to manage increasing flood and heat risks. Community engagement and robust local planning are essential to navigate these challenges effectively.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Baw Baw Shire Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main climate risk for Narracan residents?
The primary climate risk for Narracan is bushfire, due to its location adjacent to significant bushland areas and projected increases in hot, dry weather conditions.
How will climate change affect flooding in Narracan?
Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall events, potentially leading to more frequent and severe localised flooding from Narracan Creek and stormwater runoff.
Are there specific bushfire overlays affecting Narracan properties?
Yes, Narracan is designated as a Bushfire Prone Area, meaning properties within the suburb are subject to specific building regulations and planning requirements related to bushfire risk.
What can I do to prepare my property for bushfires in Narracan?
Key preparation steps include maintaining a defendable space around your home, clearing gutters and downpipes, having appropriate fire-fighting equipment, and developing a household bushfire survival plan.
Does Narracan face risks from sea-level rise?
No, Narracan is located sufficiently inland and at an elevation that it does not face any direct risks from sea-level rise or coastal erosion.
Where can I find official flood information for Narracan?
Official flood information, including flood maps and warnings, can typically be found on the Baw Baw Shire Council website and through the Victorian State Emergency Service (SES) website.
Get your property's risk report
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections