Climate Risk in Manly, Victoria

Manly, Victoria

Updated Apr 2026

Manly, VIC, faces increasing risks from climate change, particularly related to heatwaves and coastal hazards. Flooding and bushfire risks are also present. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Is Manly Safe from Climate Risk?

Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Manly, Victoria, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.

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What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B

2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

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Overall Risk Score

Address-level

Hazard Breakdown

Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Manly

Flood

Manly, VIC, faces a moderate risk of flooding. This is due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

Bushfire

The bushfire risk in Manly, VIC, is relatively low compared to other regions in Victoria. However, the risk is still present due to nearby grasslands and bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

Heat

Manly, VIC, is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Urban areas tend to amplify the heat effect.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

Coastal

Manly, VIC, faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards. Sea level rise and storm surges could lead to inundation of low-lying coastal areas. Erosion is also a concern, potentially impacting infrastructure and property.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges

Wind

Data being compiled

Storm

Data being compiled

Social

Data being compiled

Energy

Data being compiled

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Manly

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Urban heat island effect
·Climate change

Data source

flood Risk

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Urban development

Data source

coastal Risk

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges
·Erosion

Data source

bushfire Risk

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Vegetation dryness

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price declines.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise.
4.Review insurance options and costs.

How the region's climate is projected to change

Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.

Temperature

+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030

Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.

Rainfall

Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030

The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.

Fire weather

Harsher, magnitude uncertain

High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.

Sea level

+0.12 m by 2030

At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.

Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a heatwave response plan

Immediate

Create a plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement coastal protection measures

Long-term

Construct seawalls and other coastal protection structures to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and storm surges.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Promote bushfire preparedness

Near-term

Educate residents about bushfire risks and encourage them to develop bushfire survival plans.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Manly's Climate Risk Profile

Manly, VIC, is a suburb that will be increasingly affected by climate change. The primary risks include more frequent and intense heatwaves, rising sea levels, and the potential for increased flooding. Bushfire risk, while lower than some other areas in Victoria, should not be ignored.

The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves pose a significant threat to the health and well-being of residents, especially vulnerable populations. Rising sea levels and storm surges could lead to inundation of low-lying coastal areas, impacting infrastructure and property values. Changes in rainfall patterns may increase the risk of flooding.

While Manly is not as heavily forested as some other Victorian suburbs, the risk of bushfires should still be considered, especially during dry periods. Residents should maintain awareness of fire danger ratings and have a bushfire survival plan in place.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of individual preparedness, community resilience initiatives, and government policies. Residents can take steps to reduce their vulnerability to heatwaves, flooding, and bushfires. Community-level initiatives can help to build resilience and support vulnerable populations. Government policies can promote sustainable development and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Manly?

The main climate change risks in Manly include more frequent and intense heatwaves, rising sea levels, increased flooding, and a potential increase in bushfire risk.

How will rising sea levels affect Manly?

Rising sea levels could lead to inundation of low-lying coastal areas, impacting infrastructure, property values, and recreational areas.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Manly?

You can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, checking on vulnerable neighbors, and developing a heatwave response plan.

Is my property at risk of flooding in Manly?

Properties in low-lying areas near the coast or waterways are at higher risk of flooding. Check flood maps and council resources to assess your property's risk.

How can I protect my home from bushfires in Manly?

You can protect your home from bushfires by clearing vegetation around your property, maintaining your roof and gutters, and developing a bushfire survival plan.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Manly, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Manly →

Check Your flood Risk Now

Check Manly's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.

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Get Your flood Risk Report — A$49

What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B

2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

Check your address →

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