Longwarry Climate Risk Assessment

Longwarry, Victoria· Cardinia Shire Council· 3816
Updated June 2026

Longwarry, located in Victoria's Gippsland region, faces a medium overall climate risk. The primary concerns are increasing heatwave intensity and moderate flood risks, with bushfire also posing a threat. While coastal impacts are negligible, residents should prepare for more extreme weather events.

Is Longwarry Safe from Climate Risk?

Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Longwarry, Victoria, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.

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What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

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Overall Risk Score

Address-level

Hazard Breakdown

Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Longwarry

Flood

Moderate flood risk due to proximity to waterways and low-lying areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding

Bushfire

Medium bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation and historical fire activity.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased dry periods
  • ·Vegetation fuel load

Heat

High heat risk due to increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves

Coastal

Very low coastal risk due to significant distance from the coast.

Wind

Data being compiled

Storm

Data being compiled

Social

Data being compiled

Energy

Data being compiled

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Longwarry

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

High heat risk due to increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
Data source

flood Risk

Moderate flood risk due to proximity to waterways and low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
Data source

coastal Risk

Very low coastal risk due to significant distance from the coast.

Data source

bushfire Risk

Medium bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation and historical fire activity.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased dry periods
  • ·Vegetation fuel load
Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Increasing premiums expected due to higher risk events.

Price Impact

Potential negative impact on property values in high-risk zones.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps for property location.
  • 2.Review bushfire attack level (BAL) rating.
  • 3.Assess proximity to waterways and potential flood impacts.
  • 4.Consider heat resilience of the property.
  • 5.Verify insurance availability and cost.

How the region's climate is projected to change

Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.

Temperature

+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030

Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.

Rainfall

Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030

The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.

Fire weather

Harsher, magnitude uncertain

High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.

Sea level

+0.12 m by 2030

At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.

Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →

Adaptation Recommendations

Community Heatwave Plan

Near-term

Develop and promote a community-wide plan for heatwave preparedness, including identifying cooling centres and supporting vulnerable residents.

Est. cost: $

Learn more

Floodplain Management Review

Near-term

Undertake a review of floodplain management strategies for the Tarago River catchment, focusing on updated rainfall intensity projections.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness Education

Immediate

Increase community education and engagement on bushfire preparedness, including property maintenance and emergency planning.

Est. cost: $

Learn more

Water Sensitive Urban Design

Long-term

Incorporate Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) principles in new developments to manage stormwater runoff and reduce localised flooding.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

Green Infrastructure for Cooling

Near-term

Promote the planting of trees and creation of green spaces within the town to mitigate the urban heat island effect.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

About Longwarry's Climate Risk Profile

Longwarry, a growing township in the Shire of Cardinia, Victoria, is situated in a region increasingly susceptible to the impacts of climate change. While offering a semi-rural lifestyle, its location presents specific environmental challenges that warrant careful consideration.

The suburb experiences a moderate to high risk from extreme heat events. Projections indicate a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing health risks to residents and strain on infrastructure. This is driven by overall rising average temperatures and longer periods of extreme heat, exacerbated by the surrounding landscape.

Flood risk is another significant concern for Longwarry. The area is susceptible to riverine flooding from nearby waterways, and increased rainfall intensity due to climate change is likely to exacerbate this risk. Low-lying areas and properties close to watercourses are particularly vulnerable during heavy rainfall events.

Bushfire risk is also a factor, given the proximity to semi-rural areas and natural vegetation. While not as immediate a threat as heat or flood for the core township, the surrounding landscape can contribute to fire spread, especially during prolonged dry periods. Residents in fringe areas need to be particularly vigilant.

In contrast, Longwarry is geographically distant from the coast, meaning direct impacts from sea-level rise and coastal erosion are not a significant concern. However, the broader regional climate trends still influence the local environment and community resilience.

Overall, Longwarry's climate risk profile necessitates a proactive approach to adaptation and preparedness. Understanding these risks and implementing appropriate measures can help safeguard the community and its assets against the escalating challenges of a changing climate.

Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the main flood risk for Longwarry residents?

The primary flood risk for Longwarry stems from the Tarago River, which can cause riverine flooding after intense rainfall. Low-lying areas near the river are most susceptible.

How will climate change affect heatwaves in Longwarry?

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves in Longwarry. This means more days above 35°C and longer periods of extreme heat.

Is Longwarry considered a high-risk bushfire area?

Longwarry is classified as a bushfire-prone area due to its proximity to rural and bushland interfaces. Residents, especially those on the outskirts, should have a bushfire survival plan.

Does Longwarry face any risks from sea-level rise?

No, Longwarry is located too far inland to be directly affected by sea-level rise or coastal erosion.

What can I do to prepare my property for climate risks in Longwarry?

For flood risk, ensure your property is not in a known flood zone and consider flood barriers if necessary. For bushfire, maintain defensible space around your home. For heat, ensure your home is well-insulated and consider shade options.

Where can I find official flood information for Longwarry?

Official flood information, including maps and warnings, can be found on the Cardinia Shire Council website and the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) flood pages.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Longwarry, use our analysis tool.

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What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections