Climate Risk Profile: Ferntree Gully, VIC
Ferntree Gully faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, and a high risk of bushfire. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly increasing the intensity of rainfall and the frequency of heat events. Residents should prepare for potential impacts and take steps to mitigate their vulnerability.
Is Ferntree Gully Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Ferntree Gully, Victoria, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Ferntree Gully
Flood
Ferntree Gully has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from local creeks and stormwater runoff. Properties in low-lying areas are most vulnerable.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces
Bushfire
Ferntree Gully faces a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to the Dandenong Ranges National Park. The area is prone to dry conditions and strong winds, increasing fire danger.
Key drivers:
- ·Proximity to bushland
- ·Dry summers
Heat
Ferntree Gully experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. Vulnerable populations may be at risk during extreme heat events.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Coastal
Coastal risk is negligible in Ferntree Gully due to its distance from the coastline.
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Ferntree Gully
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Ferntree Gully experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. Vulnerable populations may be at risk during extreme heat events.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
flood Risk
Ferntree Gully has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from local creeks and stormwater runoff. Properties in low-lying areas are most vulnerable.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces
coastal Risk
Coastal risk is negligible in Ferntree Gully due to its distance from the coastline.
Data sourcebushfire Risk
Ferntree Gully faces a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to the Dandenong Ranges National Park. The area is prone to dry conditions and strong winds, increasing fire danger.
Primary Drivers
- ·Proximity to bushland
- ·Dry summers
- ·Strong winds
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate-related risks.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Review insurance coverage and premiums.
- 4.Develop a bushfire survival plan.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve stormwater drainage infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade local stormwater drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreImplement a community bushfire preparedness program
ImmediateDevelop and implement a community-based bushfire preparedness program to educate residents about fire safety and evacuation procedures.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreEstablish a heatwave early warning system
Near-termCreate a heatwave early warning system to alert vulnerable residents about impending heat events and provide guidance on staying safe.
Est. cost: Low
Learn morePromote water-sensitive urban design
Long-termEncourage the use of water-sensitive urban design principles in new developments to reduce stormwater runoff and improve water quality.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreSupport vulnerable residents during extreme weather
ImmediateProvide assistance to elderly, disabled, and low-income residents during heatwaves, floods, and bushfires.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreAbout Ferntree Gully's Climate Risk Profile
Ferntree Gully, located in the foothills of the Dandenong Ranges, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The suburb's proximity to bushland elevates the risk of bushfires, especially during dry summers with strong winds. Historical bushfire events have demonstrated the potential for significant property damage and community disruption.
Flooding is another concern, with local creeks and stormwater systems posing a threat during heavy rainfall events. Increased urban development has reduced permeable surfaces, exacerbating runoff and increasing flood risk in low-lying areas. Climate change projections indicate that rainfall intensity is likely to increase, further elevating flood risk.
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Rising average temperatures are also contributing to increased energy demand for cooling, placing strain on the electricity grid.
While coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased insurance costs, may still affect Ferntree Gully. Residents and businesses should take proactive steps to adapt to these changing conditions and build resilience to climate-related hazards.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Knox City Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Ferntree Gully?
The main climate change risks in Ferntree Gully are increased heatwaves, more intense rainfall leading to flooding, and a higher risk of bushfires due to drier conditions.
How can I prepare my home for a bushfire?
You can prepare your home for a bushfire by clearing vegetation around your property, maintaining firebreaks, having a bushfire survival plan, and ensuring you have adequate insurance coverage.
What should I do during a heatwave?
During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, avoid strenuous activity, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.
Where can I find information about flood risks in Ferntree Gully?
You can find information about flood risks in Ferntree Gully on the Knox City Council website, including flood maps and advice on how to protect your property.
Is Ferntree Gully a good place to invest in property considering climate change?
While Ferntree Gully has many positive attributes, potential property investors should carefully consider the climate change risks, particularly the potential for increased insurance premiums and the impact on property values in high-risk areas. Conduct thorough due diligence and seek professional advice.
What is the council doing to address climate change?
Knox City Council has a climate strategy in place that outlines actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve energy efficiency, and build community resilience to climate change impacts. Visit the council website for more information.
Get your property's risk report
This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Ferntree Gully, use our analysis tool.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections