Ercildoune Climate Risk and Resilience
Ercildoune faces a moderate overall climate risk, primarily driven by an increasing bushfire threat due to its proximity to grasslands and timbered areas. While flood and heat risks are currently moderate, they are projected to remain stable or slightly increase. Coastal impacts are negligible.
Is Ercildoune Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Ercildoune, Victoria, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Ercildoune
Flood
Low to moderate flood risk, primarily associated with localized heavy rainfall events and potential minor inundation of low-lying areas.
Key drivers:
- ·Intense rainfall events
- ·Limited natural drainage
Bushfire
Moderate to high bushfire risk due to proximity to grasslands and scattered timbered areas, with potential for rapid fire spread under hot, dry, and windy conditions.
Key drivers:
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Prevailing winds
Heat
Moderate heat risk, with increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves impacting the region.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased heatwave duration
Coastal
Negligible coastal risk due to significant distance from the coast.
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Ercildoune
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Moderate heat risk, with increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves impacting the region.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased heatwave duration
flood Risk
Low to moderate flood risk, primarily associated with localized heavy rainfall events and potential minor inundation of low-lying areas.
Primary Drivers
- ·Intense rainfall events
- ·Limited natural drainage
bushfire Risk
Moderate to high bushfire risk due to proximity to grasslands and scattered timbered areas, with potential for rapid fire spread under hot, dry, and windy conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Prevailing winds
- ·Increased fire weather days
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Moderate to high premiums expected, particularly for properties in bushfire-prone zones. Increased scrutiny on building materials and defensible space.
Price Impact
Potential negative impact on resale value for properties perceived as high-risk, especially concerning bushfire. Well-prepared properties may command a premium.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Review current and future bushfire risk assessments.
- 2.Check proximity to fuel sources (grasslands, timber).
- 3.Assess property's defensible space and fire-resilient design.
- 4.Understand local flood potential from heavy rainfall.
- 5.Verify insurance availability and cost.
- 6.Check for adequate cooling and ventilation for heatwaves.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Strengthen Bushfire Preparedness
ImmediateDevelop and maintain defendable space around properties, upgrade building materials to fire-resistant standards, and ensure clear evacuation plans are in place.
Est. cost: $5,000 - $50,000+
Learn moreImprove Property Drainage
Near-termImplement measures to manage stormwater runoff, such as swales, rain gardens, and improved guttering, to mitigate localized flooding from heavy rainfall.
Est. cost: $1,000 - $10,000
Learn moreEnhance Heat Resilience
Near-termPlant deciduous trees for summer shade, improve home insulation, install efficient cooling systems, and ensure access to cool refuges during heatwaves.
Est. cost: $2,000 - $15,000
Learn moreCommunity Bushfire Education
Near-termOrganize regular community workshops and information sessions on bushfire preparedness, response, and recovery.
Est. cost: $500 - $2,000 per event
Learn moreWater Conservation Measures
Long-termImplement water-wise gardening practices and consider rainwater harvesting to reduce reliance on mains water during potential dry periods.
Est. cost: $500 - $5,000
Learn moreAbout Ercildoune's Climate Risk Profile
Ercildoune, located within the Pyrenees Shire Council region of Victoria, presents a mixed climate risk profile. The most significant concern for residents is the moderate to high risk of bushfire. This is largely attributed to the suburb's location adjacent to extensive grasslands and scattered timbered areas, which can fuel rapid fire spread, especially during hot, dry, and windy conditions typical of the Australian summer. The increasing frequency of extreme fire weather days exacerbates this risk.
Flood risk in Ercildoune is generally considered low to moderate. While the area is not prone to major riverine flooding, localized heavy rainfall events can lead to inundation in lower-lying areas due to the limited natural drainage systems. These events are typically short-lived but can cause disruption.
The risk associated with extreme heat is moderate and trending upwards. Ercildoune, like much of regional Victoria, is experiencing rising average temperatures and an increase in the duration and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to human health, infrastructure, and local ecosystems, particularly during prolonged periods of extreme heat.
Given its inland location, Ercildoune is not exposed to coastal hazards such as sea-level rise or coastal erosion. This aspect of climate risk is therefore negligible for the suburb.
Overall, while Ercildoune is not currently facing severe climate impacts across all categories, the increasing trend in bushfire risk and heatwaves warrants proactive planning and adaptation measures to ensure community resilience.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Pyrenees Shire Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main bushfire risk for Ercildoune?
The main bushfire risk stems from the surrounding grasslands and scattered timbered areas, which can easily ignite and spread rapidly during hot, dry, and windy conditions. The increasing frequency of extreme fire weather days heightens this concern.
How likely are major floods in Ercildoune?
Major riverine flooding is unlikely due to Ercildoune's inland location. However, localized flooding can occur during intense rainfall events, particularly in low-lying areas with limited drainage.
Will Ercildoune be affected by sea-level rise?
No, Ercildoune is located approximately 180 km inland from the coast and is therefore not exposed to risks associated with sea-level rise or coastal erosion.
What are the projected changes in temperature for Ercildoune?
Climate projections indicate a rise in average temperatures and an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves for Ercildoune, particularly by 2050 under higher emissions scenarios.
What steps can I take to prepare my property for bushfires in Ercildoune?
Key steps include creating and maintaining defensible space around your home, using fire-resistant building materials, clearing gutters and downpipes, and having a well-rehearsed evacuation plan.
Does the Pyrenees Shire Council have a climate change strategy?
Yes, the Pyrenees Shire Council is actively involved in addressing climate change. You can find information on their initiatives and strategies on their official website under the Environment section.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections