Ascot Climate Risk Profile

Ascot, Victoria· City of Moonee Valley· 3000
Updated June 2026

Ascot, a well-established inner-northern suburb of Melbourne, faces a medium overall climate risk. While its bushfire and coastal risks are low, the suburb is increasingly vulnerable to heatwaves and moderate flood events, particularly those associated with Moonee Ponds Creek. Future projections indicate an intensification of heat risks and a continued moderate flood threat.

Is Ascot Safe from Climate Risk?

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What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

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Overall Risk Score

Address-level

Hazard Breakdown

Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Ascot

Flood

Ascot has a moderate flood risk, primarily due to its proximity to the Moonee Ponds Creek and potential for flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urbanisation and impervious surfaces

Bushfire

Ascot has a low bushfire risk due to its predominantly urban setting and distance from significant bushland areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Limited nearby vegetation
  • ·Urban planning controls

Heat

Ascot faces a high heat risk, characterized by increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves, exacerbated by the urban heat island effect.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Coastal

Ascot has a very low coastal risk due to its inland location, well away from the coastline.

Key drivers:

  • ·Significant distance from coast

Wind

Data being compiled

Storm

Data being compiled

Social

Data being compiled

Energy

Data being compiled

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Ascot

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

Ascot faces a high heat risk, characterized by increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves, exacerbated by the urban heat island effect.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Reduced cooling breezes
Data source

flood Risk

Ascot has a moderate flood risk, primarily due to its proximity to the Moonee Ponds Creek and potential for flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urbanisation and impervious surfaces
  • ·Moonee Ponds Creek overflow
Data source

coastal Risk

Ascot has a very low coastal risk due to its inland location, well away from the coastline.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Significant distance from coast
Data source

bushfire Risk

Ascot has a low bushfire risk due to its predominantly urban setting and distance from significant bushland areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Limited nearby vegetation
  • ·Urban planning controls
Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Moderate increase in premiums expected due to heatwave and potential flood events.

Price Impact

Potential for negative impact on property values in flood-prone areas or for properties poorly equipped for heatwaves.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps for specific property location.
  • 2.Assess property's cooling and insulation.
  • 3.Inquire about past storm or flood damage.
  • 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.
  • 5.Consider proximity to green spaces for heat mitigation.

How the region's climate is projected to change

Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.

Temperature

+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030

Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.

Rainfall

Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030

The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.

Fire weather

Harsher, magnitude uncertain

High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.

Sea level

+0.12 m by 2030

At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.

Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →

Adaptation Recommendations

Enhance Urban Cooling Strategies

Near-term

Increase tree canopy cover, promote green roofs and walls, and implement cool pavement technologies to mitigate the urban heat island effect.

Est. cost: $$$

Learn more

Improve Stormwater Management

Near-term

Invest in Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS), upgrade existing drainage infrastructure, and implement permeable paving to reduce flash flooding.

Est. cost: $$$

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Response Plans

Immediate

Establish community cooling centres, improve public health warnings, and provide resources for vulnerable residents during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

Retrofit Properties for Resilience

Long-term

Encourage and subsidise retrofitting of homes with better insulation, reflective roofing, and efficient cooling systems.

Est. cost: $$

Learn more

Community Education and Awareness

Near-term

Run campaigns to educate residents about climate risks, preparedness measures, and available support services.

Est. cost: $

Learn more

About Ascot's Climate Risk Profile

Ascot, located approximately 6 kilometres north of Melbourne's CBD, is a suburb characterised by its leafy streets, heritage homes, and proximity to key amenities. Historically, Ascot has been part of the broader Moonee Valley region, which has experienced a range of weather events.

The suburb's primary climate vulnerabilities lie in its susceptibility to extreme heat and moderate flood risks. The urban environment, with its concentration of buildings and paved surfaces, contributes to the urban heat island effect, making Ascot particularly vulnerable during heatwave events. Projections suggest these events will become more frequent and severe in the coming decades.

Flood risk in Ascot is primarily linked to the Moonee Ponds Creek catchment. While not directly on the coast, intense rainfall events can lead to localised flooding and inundation, especially in lower-lying areas or those with inadequate drainage. The increasing intensity of rainfall due to climate change exacerbates this risk.

Conversely, Ascot benefits from a low bushfire risk due to its highly urbanised nature and the absence of significant, contiguous bushland within or immediately adjacent to the suburb. Similarly, its inland position means coastal inundation and erosion are not significant concerns.

Future climate projections for Ascot indicate a notable increase in heat stress and a persistent, albeit manageable, flood risk. Adaptation strategies will need to focus on mitigating the impacts of extreme heat and improving stormwater management to cope with more intense rainfall events. The suburb's resilience will depend on both individual property-level actions and broader community and council initiatives.

Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the main flood risk for Ascot residents?

The primary flood risk in Ascot is associated with Moonee Ponds Creek and potential flash flooding during intense rainfall events. While not a high-risk area, localised inundation can occur.

How will climate change affect heatwaves in Ascot?

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in Ascot. The urban heat island effect will likely exacerbate these temperatures, making extreme heat a significant concern.

Does Ascot have a significant bushfire risk?

No, Ascot has a very low bushfire risk due to its highly urbanised environment and distance from major bushland areas.

What can I do to prepare my property for climate risks in Ascot?

Consider improving your home's insulation and cooling efficiency for heatwaves, ensure your property has adequate stormwater drainage, and stay informed about emergency warnings.

Which council is responsible for climate adaptation in Ascot?

The City of Moonee Valley is responsible for climate adaptation strategies and planning within Ascot.

Are there any coastal risks for Ascot?

No, Ascot is located inland and is not exposed to any risks associated with sea-level rise or coastal erosion.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Ascot, use our analysis tool.

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What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections