Climate Risk in St Marys, Tasmania
St Marys faces increasing risks from bushfires, floods, and heatwaves due to climate change. The inland location mitigates coastal risks. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather events.
Is St Marys Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for St Marys, Tasmania, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for St Marys
Flood
St Marys faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·River overflow
Bushfire
The area surrounding St Marys has a high bushfire risk due to the presence of dense vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase this risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
Heat
St Marys is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Heatwave frequency
Coastal
Coastal risks are minimal in St Marys due to its inland location.
Key drivers:
- ·Distance from coast
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for St Marys
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
St Marys is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Heatwave frequency
- ·Urban heat island effect (minor)
flood Risk
St Marys faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·River overflow
- ·Inadequate drainage
coastal Risk
Coastal risks are minimal in St Marys due to its inland location.
Primary Drivers
- ·Distance from coast
bushfire Risk
The area surrounding St Marys has a high bushfire risk due to the presence of dense vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase this risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Fuel load
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.
Price Impact
Property values may be affected by increasing climate risks.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
- 4.Consider long-term climate risks when making property decisions.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Develop a Bushfire Management Plan
ImmediateCreate a comprehensive plan for bushfire preparedness, including clearing vegetation, maintaining firebreaks, and establishing evacuation routes.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreUpgrade Drainage Infrastructure
Near-termImprove drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreImplement a Heatwave Action Plan
Near-termDevelop a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.
Est. cost: Low
Learn morePromote Water Conservation
Long-termEncourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during periods of drought and heat.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreCommunity Education Programs
Near-termRun workshops and distribute information on how residents can prepare for and respond to climate-related hazards.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout St Marys's Climate Risk Profile
St Marys, Tasmania, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary concerns are the rising risks of bushfires, exacerbated by hotter and drier conditions, and increased flooding due to more intense rainfall events. Heatwaves are also expected to become more frequent and severe, posing a threat to public health, particularly for vulnerable populations.
The risk of bushfires is driven by the surrounding dense vegetation and projected increases in temperature and decreases in rainfall. These conditions create a higher fuel load and a greater likelihood of ignition. Flooding risks are associated with the proximity of waterways and the potential for heavy rainfall to overwhelm drainage systems.
While St Marys is not directly exposed to coastal hazards due to its inland location, the broader regional impacts of sea-level rise and coastal erosion could indirectly affect the community. Changes in agricultural productivity and tourism patterns could also have economic consequences.
Addressing these challenges requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to slowing the pace of climate change. At the local level, measures such as improving bushfire preparedness, upgrading drainage infrastructure, and implementing heatwave action plans can help to protect the community.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Break O'Day Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in St Marys?
The main risks are increased bushfire risk, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and increased flooding due to heavy rainfall.
How will climate change affect property values in St Marys?
Increasing climate risks may negatively impact property values, particularly for properties in bushfire-prone or flood-prone areas. Insurance costs may also increase.
What is the council doing to address climate change?
The Break O'Day Council is developing and implementing strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change, including improving drainage infrastructure and promoting bushfire preparedness.
How can I prepare my home for bushfires?
Clear vegetation around your home, maintain firebreaks, and have a bushfire survival plan in place. Ensure you have adequate insurance coverage.
Where can I find information about flood risks in St Marys?
You can find flood maps and information on the SES Tasmania website and the Break O'Day Council website.
What should I do during a heatwave?
Stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on elderly and vulnerable neighbors.
Get your property's risk report
This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in St Marys, use our analysis tool.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections