Climate Risk Profile: Manly, TAS
Manly, Tasmania, faces increasing climate risks, particularly from heatwaves and flooding. Sea level rise and bushfire risk also contribute to the overall vulnerability of the suburb. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events and consider adaptation measures.
Is Manly Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Manly, Tasmania, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Manly
Flood
Manly faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
Bushfire
Bushfire risk in Manly is relatively low but present due to nearby bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the likelihood of bushfires.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
Heat
Manly is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Manly faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These hazards could impact infrastructure and property values.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Storm surge
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Manly
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Manly is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Manly faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Urban development
coastal Risk
Manly faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These hazards could impact infrastructure and property values.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Storm surge
- ·Coastal erosion
bushfire Risk
Bushfire risk in Manly is relatively low but present due to nearby bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the likelihood of bushfires.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Vegetation dryness
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to climate risks.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise.
- 4.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve Home Insulation
Near-termProper insulation can help keep homes cooler in summer and warmer in winter, reducing energy consumption and improving comfort during extreme weather events.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreInstall Rainwater Tanks
Near-termRainwater tanks can provide a supplementary water supply for gardens and other non-potable uses, reducing demand on the municipal water supply during droughts and heavy rainfall events.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreSupport Local Climate Action Plans
Long-termEngage with local government and community organizations to support the development and implementation of climate action plans that address the specific vulnerabilities of Manly.
Est. cost: Low
Learn morePrepare for Heatwaves
ImmediateDevelop a heatwave plan that includes identifying cool places to go, staying hydrated, and checking on vulnerable neighbors.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Manly's Climate Risk Profile
Manly, Tasmania, is a suburb that will be increasingly affected by climate change. The primary risks include more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased flooding due to heavier rainfall, and the potential for coastal inundation from sea level rise.
The risk of heatwaves is a significant concern, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. The urban environment can exacerbate the effects of heatwaves, creating urban heat islands.
Flooding is another major risk, with the potential for increased rainfall intensity to overwhelm drainage systems and cause property damage. Sea level rise also poses a threat to low-lying coastal areas.
While bushfire risk is relatively lower compared to other parts of Australia, it is still a concern, particularly during dry periods. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fuel loads and be prepared for potential bushfire events.
Adapting to these changes will require a combination of individual actions and community-level initiatives. This includes measures such as improving home insulation, installing rainwater tanks, and supporting local efforts to enhance climate resilience.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Manly?
The main risks include more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased flooding due to heavier rainfall, and potential coastal inundation from sea level rise.
How can I prepare my home for heatwaves?
Improve insulation, install window coverings, and consider air conditioning. Also, develop a heatwave plan that includes identifying cool places to go and staying hydrated.
What can I do to reduce my flood risk?
Ensure your property is properly drained, clear gutters and downpipes, and consider installing a rainwater tank. Check if your property is in a flood zone and take appropriate precautions.
Is Manly in a bushfire-prone area?
Yes, some areas of Manly are designated as bushfire-prone. Maintain your property to reduce fuel loads and be prepared for potential bushfire events.
Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in Tasmania?
The CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology provide valuable information about climate change impacts and projections for Tasmania. The Tasmanian government also has resources available on its website.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections