Climate Risk in Burnie, Tasmania
Burnie faces a moderate climate risk, primarily driven by coastal hazards and increasing temperatures. Sea level rise and potential for flooding pose significant challenges to the region. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.
Is Burnie Safe from Climate Risk?
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
What the mapping shows for Burnie
Part of Burnie is mapped as subject to coastal inundation.
8.7% of Burnie is mapped as subject to coastal inundation (coastal inundation hazard band, including 1% AEP storm tide at 2100)
24.3% of Burnie is mapped as subject to coastal erosion (coastal erosion hazard band mapped for the Tasmanian planning system)
Tasmanian Coastal Inundation Hazard Bands (20161201), State of Tasmania (Department of Premier and Cabinet), Creative Commons Attribution 4.0, retrieved 2026-10-23
This is a share of the suburb's land area from a published state dataset, not an assessment of any property. A ClimateNest report scores the individual address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Check an address in Burnie →Climate Hazard Breakdown for Burnie
Flood
Burnie faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its coastal location and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
Bushfire
Burnie has a relatively low bushfire risk compared to other regions in Tasmania, but areas near bushland are still susceptible, especially during dry periods.
Key drivers:
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Windy conditions
Heat
Burnie experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected in the future.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Burnie faces a high coastal risk due to sea level rise and potential for coastal erosion and inundation, impacting infrastructure and coastal communities.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Storm surges
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Burnie
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Burnie experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected in the future.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Burnie faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its coastal location and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Urban development
coastal Risk
Burnie faces a high coastal risk due to sea level rise and potential for coastal erosion and inundation, impacting infrastructure and coastal communities.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Storm surges
- ·Coastal erosion
bushfire Risk
Burnie has a relatively low bushfire risk compared to other regions in Tasmania, but areas near bushland are still susceptible, especially during dry periods.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Windy conditions
- ·Ignition sources
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Increasing premiums due to flood and coastal risks.
Price Impact
Potential for decreased property values in high-risk coastal areas.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and coastal erosion zones.
- 2.Assess property's elevation and drainage.
- 3.Inquire about past flood or coastal damage.
- 4.Review insurance options and premiums.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Upgrade drainage infrastructure
Near-termImprove drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce the risk of flash flooding.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreConstruct coastal defenses
Near-termBuild seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against sea level rise and coastal erosion.
Est. cost: Very High
Learn moreDevelop heat action plan
ImmediateCreate a heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreRelocate critical infrastructure
Long-termRelocate critical infrastructure away from high-risk coastal areas.
Est. cost: Very High
Learn moreAbout Burnie's Climate Risk Profile
Burnie, located on the north-west coast of Tasmania, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include coastal inundation due to sea level rise, increased flooding from more intense rainfall events, and rising average temperatures.
The coastal location of Burnie makes it particularly susceptible to sea level rise, which can lead to erosion, inundation of low-lying areas, and damage to infrastructure. The risk of flooding is also increasing due to more frequent and intense rainfall events, which can overwhelm drainage systems and cause flash flooding.
Rising temperatures are another concern for Burnie, with projections indicating more frequent and severe heatwaves in the future. This can have impacts on human health, particularly for vulnerable populations, as well as on agriculture and other industries.
Addressing these climate risks will require a combination of adaptation and mitigation measures. Adaptation strategies may include building seawalls, improving drainage systems, and developing heat action plans. Mitigation efforts will focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to slow the pace of climate change.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Burnie City Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate risks facing Burnie?
The main climate risks facing Burnie are coastal inundation due to sea level rise, increased flooding from more intense rainfall events, and rising average temperatures.
How will sea level rise affect Burnie?
Sea level rise can lead to erosion, inundation of low-lying areas, and damage to infrastructure in Burnie.
What can be done to reduce the risk of flooding in Burnie?
Improving drainage systems and constructing flood defenses can help reduce the risk of flooding in Burnie.
How can I prepare for heatwaves in Burnie?
Stay hydrated, seek shade, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.
Where can I find more information about climate change in Burnie?
You can find more information about climate change in Burnie on the Burnie City Council website and the Tasmanian Government's Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment website.
Get your property's risk report
This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Burnie, use our analysis tool.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections