Climate Risk Assessment for Modbury, SA
Modbury faces increasing risks from heatwaves and moderate flood risk. While coastal risks are negligible, residents should prepare for more frequent and intense heat events and potential flooding from heavy rainfall.
Is Modbury Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Modbury, South Australia, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Modbury
Flood
Modbury faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from nearby creeks and drainage systems. Development and urbanization have increased runoff, exacerbating the risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
Bushfire
The risk of bushfire in Modbury is relatively low compared to other areas in South Australia, but still present due to proximity to some vegetated areas. Grassfires are a more common concern.
Key drivers:
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·High temperatures
Heat
Modbury is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Coastal
As an inland suburb, Modbury has a very low direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.
Key drivers:
- ·Distance from coast
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Modbury
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Modbury is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Modbury faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from nearby creeks and drainage systems. Development and urbanization have increased runoff, exacerbating the risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
- ·Aging drainage infrastructure
coastal Risk
As an inland suburb, Modbury has a very low direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.
Primary Drivers
- ·Distance from coast
bushfire Risk
The risk of bushfire in Modbury is relatively low compared to other areas in South Australia, but still present due to proximity to some vegetated areas. Grassfires are a more common concern.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·High temperatures
- ·Wind
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to increased flood and heatwave risks.
Price Impact
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience some price impact.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Consider energy efficiency upgrades.
- 4.Review local council's climate adaptation plans.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve drainage infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade and maintain local drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreImplement heatwave early warning systems
ImmediateDevelop and implement heatwave early warning systems to alert vulnerable populations and provide guidance on protective measures.
Est. cost: Low
Learn morePromote energy efficiency and cool roofs
Near-termEncourage the adoption of energy-efficient building designs and cool roof technologies to reduce the urban heat island effect and lower energy consumption.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreCommunity education on emergency preparedness
Long-termProvide community education programs on how to prepare for and respond to heatwaves, floods, and other climate-related hazards.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Modbury's Climate Risk Profile
Modbury, located in South Australia, is projected to experience notable shifts in its climate risk profile over the coming decades. The primary concerns for Modbury are increasing heatwave frequency and intensity, coupled with a moderate risk of flooding due to more intense rainfall events.
The risk of heatwaves is expected to increase significantly. Rising average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat events will pose challenges for vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. The urban heat island effect may further exacerbate these risks in densely built areas.
Flooding is another area of concern. Increased rainfall intensity can overwhelm existing drainage infrastructure, leading to localized flooding. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take appropriate precautions.
Bushfire risk is relatively low compared to other regions in South Australia, but it is still important to maintain awareness and preparedness, especially during dry periods.
Coastal risks are minimal due to Modbury's inland location. However, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, could indirectly affect the suburb.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
City of Tea Tree Gully
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Modbury?
The main climate change risks for Modbury are increasing heatwave frequency and intensity, and a moderate risk of flooding due to more intense rainfall events.
How can I prepare for heatwaves in Modbury?
Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Consider installing air conditioning or using fans to stay cool.
What should I do if my property is at risk of flooding?
Check your insurance coverage, elevate valuable items, and have a plan for evacuating if necessary. Monitor local weather forecasts and heed warnings from emergency services.
Is Modbury in a bushfire-prone area?
While Modbury is not considered a high-risk bushfire area, it is still important to be aware of the risks and take precautions, especially during dry periods. Keep your property clear of flammable materials and have a bushfire survival plan.
Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in Modbury?
You can find more information on the City of Tea Tree Gully website, the Bureau of Meteorology website, and the CSIRO website.
Get your property's risk report
This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Modbury, use our analysis tool.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections