Climate Risk in Cairns, Queensland
Cairns faces significant climate risks, particularly from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity are major concerns. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.
Is Cairns Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Cairns, Queensland, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Cairns
Flood
Cairns is highly susceptible to flooding due to its location in a tropical cyclone region and proximity to waterways. Heavy rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
Bushfire
Bushfire risk in Cairns is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland being more vulnerable. The risk is influenced by dry seasons and vegetation density.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
Heat
Cairns experiences high temperatures and humidity, leading to heat stress during summer months. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased humidity
Coastal
Cairns is vulnerable to coastal inundation and erosion due to sea level rise and storm surges. Low-lying areas are particularly at risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Cairns
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Cairns experiences high temperatures and humidity, leading to heat stress during summer months. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased humidity
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Cairns is highly susceptible to flooding due to its location in a tropical cyclone region and proximity to waterways. Heavy rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Urban development
coastal Risk
Cairns is vulnerable to coastal inundation and erosion due to sea level rise and storm surges. Low-lying areas are particularly at risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
- ·Coastal erosion
bushfire Risk
Bushfire risk in Cairns is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland being more vulnerable. The risk is influenced by dry seasons and vegetation density.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Vegetation changes
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data
- 2.Assess bushfire risk and prepare property accordingly
- 3.Consider the potential impacts of sea level rise
- 4.Obtain insurance quotes and understand coverage
- 5.Review council's climate adaptation plans
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Upgrade flood defenses
ImmediateInvest in infrastructure to protect against flooding, such as levees, drainage systems, and flood-resistant building designs.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreStrengthen coastal protection
Near-termImplement measures to protect against coastal erosion and inundation, such as seawalls, beach nourishment, and mangrove restoration.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreDevelop heat action plans
ImmediateImplement strategies to reduce the impacts of heatwaves, such as public cooling centers, early warning systems, and community outreach programs.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreImprove bushfire preparedness
Near-termImplement measures to reduce bushfire risk, such as vegetation management, fire breaks, and community education programs.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreEnhance community resilience
Long-termPromote community engagement and education on climate risks and adaptation measures. Support vulnerable populations and build social networks to enhance resilience.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Cairns's Climate Risk Profile
Cairns, located in Far North Queensland, is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The region's tropical climate already brings high temperatures and humidity, which are expected to worsen with rising global temperatures. Sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal areas, increasing the risk of inundation and erosion.
Flooding is a major concern in Cairns due to its location in a tropical cyclone region and proximity to rivers and creeks. Heavy rainfall events can lead to both riverine and flash flooding, disrupting transportation and damaging property. Climate change is projected to increase the intensity of rainfall events, exacerbating the risk of flooding.
Bushfire risk is moderate in Cairns, with some areas bordering bushland being more vulnerable. Drier conditions and increased temperatures can increase the likelihood of bushfires. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety measures and prepare their properties accordingly.
Coastal hazards, including storm surges and coastal erosion, are also a concern in Cairns. Sea level rise is expected to increase the frequency and severity of these events, threatening coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. Adaptation measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, may be necessary to protect vulnerable areas.
Overall, Cairns faces a complex set of climate risks that require proactive adaptation and mitigation strategies. Residents, businesses, and government agencies must work together to build a more resilient community.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Cairns Regional Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Cairns?
The main climate change risks in Cairns include flooding, heatwaves, coastal inundation, and bushfires. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to rising temperatures, sea level rise, and more extreme weather events.
How is Cairns Regional Council preparing for climate change?
Cairns Regional Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation plans to address the risks posed by climate change. These plans include measures to protect against flooding, coastal erosion, and heatwaves.
What can I do to prepare for flooding in Cairns?
To prepare for flooding in Cairns, you should check flood maps to understand your risk, develop a flood plan, and prepare an emergency kit. You should also consider flood insurance and take steps to protect your property.
How can I reduce my risk of heat stress during heatwaves?
To reduce your risk of heat stress during heatwaves, you should stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.
What should I do if I live in a bushfire-prone area?
If you live in a bushfire-prone area, you should maintain your property to reduce fuel loads, develop a bushfire survival plan, and monitor fire danger ratings. You should also have a plan for evacuating your property if necessary.
Is it safe to buy property near the coast in Cairns?
Buying property near the coast in Cairns carries some risk due to sea level rise and coastal erosion. It's important to assess the specific risks of the property and consider the potential impacts of climate change before making a purchase.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections