Climate Risk in Upper Pappinbarra, New South Wales
Upper Pappinbarra is a rural suburb in New South Wales facing increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these hazards, requiring proactive adaptation measures to protect the community and environment. The suburb's inland location mitigates coastal risks.
Is Upper Pappinbarra Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Upper Pappinbarra, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Upper Pappinbarra
Flood
Upper Pappinbarra faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Pappinbarra River and surrounding waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine flooding, impacting low-lying areas and properties near the river.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Changes in land use
Bushfire
The bushfire risk in Upper Pappinbarra is high due to the surrounding bushland and dry conditions during the summer months. The area is susceptible to bushfires originating from nearby forests, posing a threat to properties and infrastructure.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
Heat
Upper Pappinbarra experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected in the future. This can impact vulnerable populations and increase energy demand for cooling.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Coastal risk is low in Upper Pappinbarra due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats to this suburb.
Key drivers:
- ·Distance from coast
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Upper Pappinbarra
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Upper Pappinbarra experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected in the future. This can impact vulnerable populations and increase energy demand for cooling.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Upper Pappinbarra faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Pappinbarra River and surrounding waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine flooding, impacting low-lying areas and properties near the river.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Changes in land use
- ·Aging infrastructure
coastal Risk
Coastal risk is low in Upper Pappinbarra due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats to this suburb.
Primary Drivers
- ·Distance from coast
bushfire Risk
The bushfire risk in Upper Pappinbarra is high due to the surrounding bushland and dry conditions during the summer months. The area is susceptible to bushfires originating from nearby forests, posing a threat to properties and infrastructure.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Fuel load accumulation
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risks of flooding and bushfires.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
- 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
- 4.Consider the potential impact of climate change on property value.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve Flood Defenses
Near-termConstruct levees and drainage systems to protect properties from flooding.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreImplement Bushfire Management Practices
ImmediateConduct regular hazard reduction burns and maintain firebreaks to reduce fuel loads.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn morePromote Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
Long-termEncourage the adoption of energy-efficient appliances and solar panels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreDevelop a Heatwave Management Plan
Near-termEstablish cooling centers and provide support to vulnerable populations during heatwaves.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Upper Pappinbarra's Climate Risk Profile
Upper Pappinbarra, nestled in the Hastings region of New South Wales, is characterized by its natural beauty and rural setting. However, the suburb is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly flooding and bushfires.
The risk of flooding is primarily driven by the Pappinbarra River and its tributaries, which can overflow during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change projections indicate an increase in the intensity of rainfall events, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flooding in the future. This poses a threat to properties located near the river and low-lying areas.
Bushfire risk is also a significant concern for Upper Pappinbarra, given its proximity to extensive bushland. Hot, dry conditions during the summer months create a high fire danger, and the area has experienced several bushfires in the past. Climate change is expected to worsen these conditions, increasing the frequency and severity of bushfires.
In addition to flooding and bushfires, Upper Pappinbarra is also facing the challenges of rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves. This can impact the health and well-being of residents, particularly vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Addressing these climate risks requires a comprehensive approach that includes mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as well as adaptation strategies to protect the community and environment. This may involve improving flood defenses, implementing bushfire management practices, and promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
MidCoast Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks facing Upper Pappinbarra?
The main climate change risks facing Upper Pappinbarra are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.
How will climate change affect property values in Upper Pappinbarra?
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to the increasing risks of flooding and bushfires. Buyers should consider these risks when purchasing property in the area.
What can residents do to prepare for climate change impacts?
Residents can take steps to prepare for climate change impacts by improving flood defenses, implementing bushfire management practices, and promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy.
What is the council doing to address climate change in Upper Pappinbarra?
MidCoast Council is developing and implementing climate change strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. These strategies include improving flood defenses, managing bushfire risks, and promoting sustainable development.
Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Upper Pappinbarra?
You can find more information about climate change risks in Upper Pappinbarra from the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, NSW Rural Fire Service, and MidCoast Council.
Get your property's risk report
This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Upper Pappinbarra, use our analysis tool.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections