Climate Risk Assessment for Upper Manilla, NSW
Upper Manilla faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, which are expected to increase with climate change. Bushfire risk is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.
Is Upper Manilla Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Upper Manilla, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Upper Manilla
Flood
Upper Manilla faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Riverine flooding
Bushfire
The risk of bushfires in Upper Manilla is moderate, given the surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures associated with climate change could exacerbate bushfire risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier vegetation
Heat
Upper Manilla is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Coastal
Upper Manilla is not directly exposed to coastal hazards.
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Upper Manilla
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Upper Manilla is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Upper Manilla faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Riverine flooding
- ·Inadequate drainage
bushfire Risk
The risk of bushfires in Upper Manilla is moderate, given the surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures associated with climate change could exacerbate bushfire risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier vegetation
- ·Strong winds
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to increased flood and bushfire risk.
Price Impact
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
- 2.Assess bushfire risk and prepare a survival plan.
- 3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property and health.
- 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve Flood Defenses
Near-termUpgrade drainage infrastructure and implement flood barriers to protect properties from increased flood risk.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreDevelop a Heat Action Plan
ImmediateImplement a community heat action plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreEnhance Bushfire Preparedness
Near-termProvide residents with resources and training to prepare for bushfires, including creating firebreaks and developing evacuation plans.
Est. cost: Low
Learn morePromote Water Conservation
Long-termEncourage water conservation measures to mitigate the impacts of drought and water scarcity associated with climate change.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Upper Manilla's Climate Risk Profile
Upper Manilla, located in New South Wales, is susceptible to several climate-related hazards. The primary concerns are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. Climate change projections indicate that these risks will intensify in the coming decades.
Flooding is a significant threat due to the area's proximity to waterways. Increased rainfall intensity, driven by climate change, is expected to lead to more frequent and severe flood events. This can impact property, infrastructure, and community safety.
Heatwaves are also a growing concern. Rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves pose a risk to vulnerable populations. The elderly, children, and those with chronic health conditions are particularly at risk.
Bushfire risk is moderate, with the surrounding bushland creating a potential fire hazard. Drier conditions and higher temperatures associated with climate change could exacerbate bushfire risk, increasing the likelihood of destructive fires.
While Upper Manilla is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, could still affect the community.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Tamworth Regional Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Upper Manilla?
The main climate change risks in Upper Manilla are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a higher risk of bushfires.
How will climate change affect property values in Upper Manilla?
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood risk. Insurance premiums may also increase.
What is the council doing to address climate change?
Tamworth Regional Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation plans to address the risks associated with climate change, including flood management and heatwave preparedness.
How can I prepare for increased heatwaves in Upper Manilla?
Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments during peak heat, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members. Follow local health advice during heatwaves.
What should I do to prepare for bushfires in Upper Manilla?
Create a bushfire survival plan, maintain firebreaks around your property, and stay informed about fire danger ratings and warnings from the NSW Rural Fire Service.
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What A$49 could save you from
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Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections