Climate Risk Assessment: Upper Mangrove, NSW
Upper Mangrove faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and bushfires. Increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.
Is Upper Mangrove Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Upper Mangrove, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Upper Mangrove
Flood
Upper Mangrove faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location within the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development increasing runoff
Bushfire
Upper Mangrove has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to dense bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Increased fuel load
Heat
Upper Mangrove experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Upper Mangrove has a low coastal risk due to its inland location.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Upper Mangrove
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Upper Mangrove experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Upper Mangrove faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location within the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development increasing runoff
coastal Risk
Upper Mangrove has a low coastal risk due to its inland location.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
bushfire Risk
Upper Mangrove has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to dense bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Increased fuel load
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Premiums are likely to increase due to increased flood and bushfire risk.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood and bushfire risk maps.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to extreme weather.
- 3.Review insurance options and costs.
- 4.Consider long-term climate projections.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve Flood Defenses
Near-termInvest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as levees and improved drainage systems.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreBushfire Mitigation
ImmediateImplement bushfire mitigation strategies, such as controlled burns and vegetation management.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreHeatwave Preparedness
Near-termDevelop a heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreCommunity Education
Long-termEducate residents about climate risks and how to prepare for extreme weather events.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Upper Mangrove's Climate Risk Profile
Upper Mangrove, located in the Central Coast region of New South Wales, is vulnerable to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to its location in the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment and bushfires due to the surrounding bushland.
Climate change projections indicate that the region will experience higher average temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events. This will likely lead to an increase in the frequency and intensity of both floods and bushfires.
The Hawkesbury-Nepean River poses a significant flood risk to Upper Mangrove. Intense rainfall events can cause the river to overflow, inundating low-lying areas and disrupting transportation networks. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall events, further exacerbating the flood risk.
The surrounding bushland also poses a significant bushfire risk to Upper Mangrove. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can create ideal conditions for bushfires to spread rapidly. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, further increasing the bushfire risk.
Residents of Upper Mangrove should take steps to prepare for these climate-related risks. This includes developing emergency plans, maintaining their properties to reduce bushfire risk, and staying informed about weather forecasts and warnings.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Central Coast Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Upper Mangrove?
The main risks are increased flooding, more frequent and intense bushfires, and more frequent heatwaves.
How will climate change affect property values in Upper Mangrove?
Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline due to increased insurance costs and potential damage from extreme weather events.
What can I do to prepare my home for bushfires?
Clear vegetation around your home, maintain your roof and gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan.
What should I do during a flood?
Stay informed about weather warnings, evacuate if necessary, and avoid driving through floodwaters.
Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in the Central Coast region?
You can find more information on the Central Coast Council website, the NSW Department of Planning and Environment website, and the CSIRO website.
Get your property's risk report
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections