Climate Risk Profile: The Oaks, NSW

The Oaks, New South Wales
Updated Mar 2026

The Oaks is a suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and bushfires. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should take steps to prepare for these hazards.

Is The Oaks Safe from Climate Risk?

Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for The Oaks, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.

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What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

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Overall Risk Score

Address-level

Hazard Breakdown

Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.

Climate Hazard Breakdown for The Oaks

Flood

The Oaks is located near the Nepean River and its tributaries, making it susceptible to flooding. Heavy rainfall events can cause the river to overflow, inundating low-lying areas and properties.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development reducing natural drainage

Bushfire

The Oaks is surrounded by bushland, increasing the risk of bushfires. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can quickly spread fires, threatening homes and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation

Heat

The Oaks experiences hot summers, with temperatures occasionally exceeding 40°C. Heatwaves can pose a health risk, especially for vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Coastal

The Oaks is located inland and is not directly exposed to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from the coast

Wind

Data being compiled

Storm

Data being compiled

Social

Data being compiled

Energy

Data being compiled

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for The Oaks

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

The Oaks experiences hot summers, with temperatures occasionally exceeding 40°C. Heatwaves can pose a health risk, especially for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect
Data source

flood Risk

The Oaks is located near the Nepean River and its tributaries, making it susceptible to flooding. Heavy rainfall events can cause the river to overflow, inundating low-lying areas and properties.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development reducing natural drainage
  • ·Climate change impacts on river flow
Data source

coastal Risk

The Oaks is located inland and is not directly exposed to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast
Data source

bushfire Risk

The Oaks is surrounded by bushland, increasing the risk of bushfires. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can quickly spread fires, threatening homes and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds
Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to the increased risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
  • 3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Develop a plan for evacuating in the event of a flood or bushfire.

How the region's climate is projected to change

Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.

Temperature

+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030

Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.

Rainfall

Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030

The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.

Fire weather

Harsher, magnitude uncertain

High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.

Sea level

+0.12 m by 2030

At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.

Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Construct levees and improve drainage systems to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Mitigation

Immediate

Implement regular hazard reduction burns and provide residents with resources to prepare their properties for bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide public education on how to stay safe during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education

Long-term

Raise awareness about climate change risks and adaptation strategies through community workshops and outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Upgrade Building Codes

Long-term

Incorporate climate resilience measures into building codes to ensure new construction is better prepared for future climate impacts.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About The Oaks's Climate Risk Profile

The Oaks, NSW, is a semi-rural suburb located southwest of Sydney. Its proximity to the Nepean River and surrounding bushland makes it vulnerable to both flooding and bushfires. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events, posing a significant challenge to the community.

Flooding is a major concern for The Oaks, as heavy rainfall can cause the Nepean River to overflow, inundating low-lying areas and properties. The risk of flooding is expected to increase as climate change leads to more intense rainfall events. Residents should be aware of flood warnings and have a plan in place to evacuate if necessary.

Bushfires are another significant threat to The Oaks, particularly during the hot, dry summer months. The surrounding bushland provides ample fuel for fires, and strong winds can quickly spread flames towards homes and infrastructure. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce the risk of fire and be prepared to evacuate if a bushfire threatens the area.

Rising temperatures are also a concern for The Oaks, as heatwaves can pose a health risk, especially for vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can exacerbate the problem, making temperatures even higher in built-up areas. Residents should take steps to stay cool during heatwaves, such as drinking plenty of water and spending time in air-conditioned spaces.

While The Oaks is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, climate change impacts such as sea level rise can indirectly affect the suburb through changes in weather patterns and increased rainfall. It is important for residents to be aware of these broader climate change impacts and take steps to adapt to a changing environment.

Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for The Oaks?

The main climate change risks for The Oaks are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.

How can I prepare my property for flooding?

You can prepare your property for flooding by elevating appliances, installing flood barriers, and ensuring that your property is properly drained. It is also important to have a plan in place to evacuate if necessary.

What should I do during a bushfire?

During a bushfire, it is important to stay informed about the fire's location and intensity. If you are advised to evacuate, do so immediately. If you are unable to evacuate, stay inside and close all windows and doors.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, it is important to drink plenty of water, stay in air-conditioned spaces, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members to ensure they are also staying safe.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in The Oaks?

You can find more information about climate change risks in The Oaks on the Wollondilly Shire Council website, the NSW State Emergency Service website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

Is The Oaks a good place to invest in property considering climate change?

While The Oaks faces climate-related risks, proactive adaptation measures and community resilience efforts can mitigate potential impacts. Investors should carefully assess individual property risks and consider long-term climate projections.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in The Oaks, use our analysis tool.

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What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

Climate Risk Profile for The Oaks, NSW | ClimateNest