Climate Risk in St Marys, NSW
St Marys faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change. Bushfire risk is moderate and also projected to increase. Coastal risks are negligible due to its inland location.
Is St Marys Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for St Marys, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for St Marys
Flood
St Marys has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and relatively flat terrain. Several properties are potentially exposed to flood events.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development reducing natural drainage
Bushfire
The bushfire risk in St Marys is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland. Increased temperatures and drier conditions can exacerbate this risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Higher temperatures
- ·Drier vegetation
Heat
St Marys is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
St Marys is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards.
Key drivers:
- ·Distance from the coast
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for St Marys
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
St Marys is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
St Marys has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and relatively flat terrain. Several properties are potentially exposed to flood events.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development reducing natural drainage
coastal Risk
St Marys is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards.
Primary Drivers
- ·Distance from the coast
bushfire Risk
The bushfire risk in St Marys is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland. Increased temperatures and drier conditions can exacerbate this risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Higher temperatures
- ·Drier vegetation
- ·Increased frequency of extreme weather events
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.
Price Impact
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Consider the potential for increased insurance premiums.
- 4.Review council's climate change adaptation plans.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve stormwater drainage
Near-termUpgrade stormwater infrastructure to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreImplement a heatwave management plan
ImmediateDevelop a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreBushfire preparedness
Near-termUndertake controlled burns and vegetation management to reduce bushfire risk. Educate residents on bushfire safety and evacuation procedures.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn morePromote water conservation
Long-termEncourage water conservation measures to reduce demand on water resources during droughts and heatwaves.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout St Marys's Climate Risk Profile
St Marys, located in Western Sydney, is projected to experience significant impacts from climate change. The primary concerns are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall events and rising temperatures leading to more frequent and severe heatwaves.
The risk of flooding is exacerbated by urban development, which reduces natural drainage and increases runoff. The Hawkesbury-Nepean River system poses a flood risk to the region. Climate change models predict an increase in extreme rainfall events, further increasing the likelihood of flooding.
Heatwaves are also a major concern, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The urban heat island effect, caused by the concentration of buildings and paved surfaces, can amplify the effects of heatwaves.
While the risk of coastal hazards is minimal due to its inland location, St Marys is still vulnerable to the indirect impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased demand for resources.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Penrith City Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for St Marys?
The main risks are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall, more frequent and severe heatwaves, and a moderate increase in bushfire risk.
How is Penrith City Council addressing climate change?
Penrith City Council has a climate change strategy that outlines actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.
What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in St Marys?
Stay hydrated, stay cool, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Consider installing air conditioning or visiting a cooling center during heatwaves.
How can I protect my property from flooding in St Marys?
Check flood maps to assess your property's risk. Consider installing flood barriers and ensuring your property is adequately insured.
What should I do if there is a bushfire near St Marys?
Stay informed about bushfire alerts and warnings. Have a bushfire survival plan and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.
Get your property's risk report
This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in St Marys, use our analysis tool.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections