Climate Risk Assessment: Shelly Beach, NSW
Shelly Beach is a suburb that faces moderate climate risks, particularly from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Residents should prepare for increasing temperatures and potential impacts from sea level rise.
Is Shelly Beach Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Shelly Beach, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Shelly Beach
Flood
Shelly Beach faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to coastal areas and waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff and potential inundation of low-lying areas.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
Bushfire
The area around Shelly Beach has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of nearby bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.
Key drivers:
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·High temperatures
Heat
Shelly Beach is likely to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. Higher average temperatures can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Shelly Beach faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These factors can impact infrastructure and property values.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Shelly Beach
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Shelly Beach is likely to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. Higher average temperatures can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Shelly Beach faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to coastal areas and waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff and potential inundation of low-lying areas.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Storm surge
coastal Risk
Shelly Beach faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These factors can impact infrastructure and property values.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
bushfire Risk
The area around Shelly Beach has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of nearby bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·High temperatures
- ·Strong winds
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risks of flooding and coastal erosion.
Price Impact
Properties closer to the coast may experience a decrease in value due to sea level rise and erosion risks.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
- 3.Inquire about council plans for coastal protection.
- 4.Consider the potential impact of rising insurance premiums.
- 5.Evaluate the property's energy efficiency and cooling options.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve Coastal Defenses
Near-termInvest in seawalls, beach nourishment, and other coastal protection measures to reduce the impact of sea level rise and erosion.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreUpgrade Stormwater Infrastructure
Near-termEnhance stormwater drainage systems to reduce the risk of flash flooding during heavy rainfall events.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreDevelop a Heatwave Management Plan
ImmediateImplement a plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreBushfire Preparedness
ImmediateUndertake property maintenance such as clearing gutters, trimming trees and creating fire breaks. Have a bushfire survival plan and ensure you know what you will do if threatened by a bushfire.
Est. cost: Low
Learn morePromote Water Conservation
Long-termEncourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during periods of drought.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Shelly Beach's Climate Risk Profile
Shelly Beach, located on the Central Coast of New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks that are projected to intensify in the coming decades. The suburb's coastal location makes it vulnerable to sea level rise, coastal erosion, and increased storm surge, potentially impacting infrastructure and property values.
Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves pose a significant threat to public health, especially for elderly and vulnerable populations. The risk of bushfires is also a concern, given the proximity of bushland areas. Changes in rainfall patterns may lead to increased flooding, further exacerbating the risks.
Understanding these risks is crucial for residents and property owners in Shelly Beach. Taking proactive measures to adapt to these changes can help mitigate potential impacts and ensure the long-term sustainability of the community.
Local authorities are working to develop strategies to address these challenges, including improving infrastructure, implementing early warning systems, and promoting community awareness. By working together, the community can build resilience and adapt to the changing climate.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Central Coast Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Shelly Beach?
Shelly Beach faces risks from sea level rise, coastal erosion, increased heatwaves, and potential flooding. These risks are projected to worsen in the coming decades due to climate change.
How will sea level rise affect Shelly Beach?
Sea level rise can lead to increased coastal erosion, inundation of low-lying areas, and damage to infrastructure and properties near the coast.
What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Shelly Beach?
Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Consider installing air conditioning or visiting a cooling center.
Is my property at risk of flooding in Shelly Beach?
Properties in low-lying areas near the coast or waterways are at higher risk of flooding. Check the council's flood maps to assess your property's risk.
What is the council doing to address climate change in Shelly Beach?
The Central Coast Council is developing strategies to address climate change, including improving infrastructure, implementing early warning systems, and promoting community awareness.
Where can I find more information about bushfire risks in Shelly Beach?
The NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) website provides information about bushfire risks, fire danger ratings, and bushfire survival plans.
Get your property's risk report
This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Shelly Beach, use our analysis tool.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections