Climate Risk in Penshurst, NSW
Penshurst faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. The suburb's proximity to the Georges River increases its vulnerability to flooding, while rising temperatures contribute to heatwave risks. Coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location.
Is Penshurst Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Penshurst, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Penshurst
Flood
Penshurst faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Georges River and local creeks. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces
Bushfire
The bushfire risk in Penshurst is relatively low due to its urban environment and distance from large bushland areas. However, ember attacks from distant fires remain a potential threat.
Key drivers:
- ·Proximity to bushland
- ·Dry vegetation
Heat
Penshurst is susceptible to heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures posing a risk to vulnerable populations. Urban heat island effect exacerbates the impact.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Penshurst is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.
Key drivers:
- ·Distance from the coast
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Penshurst
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Penshurst is susceptible to heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures posing a risk to vulnerable populations. Urban heat island effect exacerbates the impact.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Penshurst faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Georges River and local creeks. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces
coastal Risk
Penshurst is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.
Primary Drivers
- ·Distance from the coast
bushfire Risk
The bushfire risk in Penshurst is relatively low due to its urban environment and distance from large bushland areas. However, ember attacks from distant fires remain a potential threat.
Primary Drivers
- ·Proximity to bushland
- ·Dry vegetation
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased flood and heatwave risks.
Price Impact
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a negative impact on property values.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Inquire about council's flood mitigation plans.
- 4.Consider the potential impact of climate change on insurance premiums.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve stormwater drainage
ImmediateUpgrade stormwater infrastructure to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flash flooding.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreImplement urban greening
Near-termIncrease tree canopy cover and green spaces to reduce the urban heat island effect and provide shade during heatwaves.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreDevelop a heatwave response plan
ImmediateCreate a community-based plan to support vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and outreach programs.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreRaise community awareness
Long-termEducate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures through workshops, online resources, and community events.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Penshurst's Climate Risk Profile
Penshurst, a suburb in the St George area of Sydney, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary concerns are related to flooding from the Georges River and local creeks, as well as the increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves.
Flooding is a significant risk due to the suburb's low-lying areas and the potential for heavy rainfall events. Climate change is projected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating the risk of flash flooding and riverine flooding. The urban environment, with its extensive paved surfaces, further reduces the land's capacity to absorb water, increasing runoff.
Heatwaves are another growing concern, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The urban heat island effect, caused by the concentration of buildings and paved surfaces, can make Penshurst significantly hotter than surrounding areas during heatwaves.
While Penshurst is located inland and is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to infrastructure and supply chains, can still affect the suburb. Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies, including improved stormwater management, urban greening, and community awareness programs.
Local governance plays a crucial role in implementing these strategies and ensuring the long-term resilience of Penshurst. By working together, residents, businesses, and local authorities can create a more sustainable and climate-resilient community.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Georges River Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Penshurst?
The main risks are increased flooding from the Georges River and more frequent and intense heatwaves. Bushfire risk is present but lower than other areas.
How is the Georges River Council addressing climate change?
The council is implementing various strategies, including improving stormwater management, increasing urban greening, and developing a heatwave response plan.
What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Penshurst?
Stay hydrated, seek out air-conditioned spaces, check on vulnerable neighbors, and follow advice from health authorities.
Where can I find information about flood risks in Penshurst?
You can find flood maps and information on the Georges River Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.
Are there any community initiatives to address climate change in Penshurst?
Yes, there are various community groups and initiatives focused on sustainability and climate action. Check the Georges River Council website for details.
Get your property's risk report
This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Penshurst, use our analysis tool.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections