Climate Risk Profile: Herons Creek, NSW
Herons Creek faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and bushfires. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.
Is Herons Creek Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Herons Creek, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Herons Creek
Flood
Herons Creek is at moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate flood events.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
Bushfire
The area surrounding Herons Creek has a high bushfire risk due to the presence of dense vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
Heat
Herons Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This will increase the risk of heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
While not directly coastal, Herons Creek may experience indirect impacts from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surges affecting nearby coastal communities and infrastructure.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Herons Creek
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Herons Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This will increase the risk of heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Herons Creek is at moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate flood events.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Urban development
coastal Risk
While not directly coastal, Herons Creek may experience indirect impacts from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surges affecting nearby coastal communities and infrastructure.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
bushfire Risk
The area surrounding Herons Creek has a high bushfire risk due to the presence of dense vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Increased fuel load
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Premiums are likely to increase due to increased climate risks.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone land designations.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
- 3.Consider the cost of insurance and potential for future premium increases.
- 4.Inquire about local council's climate adaptation plans.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve Flood Defenses
Near-termUpgrade drainage infrastructure and implement flood control measures to reduce the impact of flooding.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreBushfire Risk Mitigation
ImmediateImplement bushfire risk reduction measures, such as clearing vegetation around properties and creating firebreaks.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreHeatwave Preparedness
Near-termDevelop a heatwave preparedness plan and provide support for vulnerable populations during heatwaves.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreCommunity Awareness Programs
Long-termConduct community awareness programs to educate residents about climate risks and adaptation strategies.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Herons Creek's Climate Risk Profile
Herons Creek, located in the Port Macquarie-Hastings region of New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding due to its proximity to waterways, and bushfires due to the surrounding vegetation. These risks are projected to intensify in the coming decades as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns become more erratic.
The risk of flooding is driven by increased rainfall intensity and potential sea level rise affecting drainage. Bushfire risk is exacerbated by hotter, drier conditions and increased fuel loads in the surrounding bushland. Heatwaves are also expected to become more frequent and intense, posing a threat to public health, especially for vulnerable populations.
While Herons Creek is not directly on the coast, it may experience indirect impacts from coastal hazards affecting nearby coastal communities. This includes potential disruptions to infrastructure and supply chains.
Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to slow the pace of climate change. Adaptation strategies involve preparing for the impacts that are already locked in, such as building more resilient infrastructure and implementing effective emergency response plans.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Port Macquarie-Hastings Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Herons Creek?
The main climate change risks for Herons Creek are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.
How will climate change affect property values in Herons Creek?
Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions due to increased climate risks. Insurance premiums are also likely to increase.
What is the local council doing to address climate change?
Port Macquarie-Hastings Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation plans to address the risks posed by climate change. They are also working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
How can I prepare my home for extreme weather events?
You can prepare your home by clearing vegetation around your property, upgrading drainage infrastructure, and developing an emergency plan.
Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Herons Creek?
You can find more information on the Port Macquarie-Hastings Council website, the NSW Rural Fire Service website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.
Get your property's risk report
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections