Climate Risk Profile: Great Mackerel Beach, NSW
Great Mackerel Beach faces significant climate risks, particularly from bushfires, coastal erosion, and heatwaves. The area's proximity to bushland and the coast makes it vulnerable to extreme weather events. Residents should prepare for increasing risks in the coming decades.
Is Great Mackerel Beach Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Great Mackerel Beach, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Great Mackerel Beach
Flood
Great Mackerel Beach faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall and potential storm surges. The area's low-lying coastal geography makes it susceptible to inundation.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
Bushfire
The suburb is at high risk of bushfires due to its proximity to dense bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Drier vegetation
Heat
Great Mackerel Beach is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Coastal erosion and sea level rise pose a significant threat to Great Mackerel Beach, potentially impacting infrastructure and property values.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Great Mackerel Beach
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Great Mackerel Beach is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Great Mackerel Beach faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall and potential storm surges. The area's low-lying coastal geography makes it susceptible to inundation.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Storm surges
coastal Risk
Coastal erosion and sea level rise pose a significant threat to Great Mackerel Beach, potentially impacting infrastructure and property values.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
- ·Coastal erosion
bushfire Risk
The suburb is at high risk of bushfires due to its proximity to dense bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Drier vegetation
- ·Stronger winds
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.
Price Impact
Property values may be negatively impacted by increasing climate risks.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone areas.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
- 3.Consider the cost of insurance premiums.
- 4.Inquire about council's climate adaptation plans.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Develop a community bushfire plan
ImmediateCreate a detailed plan outlining evacuation routes, firebreaks, and community responsibilities during bushfire events.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreImplement coastal erosion management strategies
Near-termInvest in seawalls, beach nourishment, and other measures to protect coastal properties from erosion.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreImprove flood resilience of buildings
Near-termElevate homes, install flood barriers, and improve drainage systems to reduce flood damage.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreEstablish a heatwave early warning system
ImmediateImplement a system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on staying safe.
Est. cost: Low
Learn morePromote water conservation
Long-termEncourage residents to conserve water through rainwater harvesting and efficient irrigation practices.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Great Mackerel Beach's Climate Risk Profile
Great Mackerel Beach, NSW, is a picturesque coastal suburb that faces increasing challenges from climate change. The primary risks include bushfires, coastal erosion, flooding, and heatwaves. The suburb's unique geography, characterized by its proximity to both dense bushland and the coastline, amplifies these vulnerabilities.
Bushfire risk is a major concern, with the potential for increased frequency and intensity of fires due to hotter, drier conditions. Coastal erosion and sea level rise threaten infrastructure and property values along the shoreline. Flooding from heavy rainfall and storm surges can also impact the area, particularly low-lying regions.
Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and intense, posing health risks to vulnerable populations. These climate change impacts necessitate proactive adaptation measures to protect the community and its assets.
Addressing these challenges requires a coordinated effort involving local government, residents, and emergency services. Implementing strategies to mitigate bushfire risk, manage coastal erosion, improve flood resilience, and prepare for heatwaves is crucial for ensuring the long-term sustainability of Great Mackerel Beach.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Northern Beaches Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Great Mackerel Beach?
The primary risks include bushfires, coastal erosion, flooding, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the coming decades due to climate change.
How will sea level rise affect Great Mackerel Beach?
Sea level rise will exacerbate coastal erosion and increase the risk of inundation during storm surges, potentially impacting properties close to the beach.
What can I do to protect my property from bushfires?
Clear vegetation around your home, maintain firebreaks, and have a bushfire survival plan in place. Stay informed about fire danger ratings and warnings.
How can I prepare for heatwaves?
Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Avoid strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day.
What is the council doing to address climate change?
The Northern Beaches Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to reduce the risks from climate change. Check their website for more information.
Where can I find information about emergency services during a disaster?
The NSW State Emergency Service (SES) website provides information about emergency services and how to prepare for disasters.
Get your property's risk report
This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Great Mackerel Beach, use our analysis tool.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections