Climate Risk Profile: Elsmore, NSW
Elsmore faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to increase the severity and frequency of these events. Residents should prepare for hotter summers and potential flooding events.
Is Elsmore Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Elsmore, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Elsmore
Flood
Elsmore faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and nearby waterways. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Changes in river flow
Bushfire
The bushfire risk in Elsmore is moderate due to surrounding vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to exacerbate this risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier vegetation
Heat
Elsmore is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·More frequent heatwaves
Coastal
Elsmore is not directly exposed to coastal risks.
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Elsmore
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Elsmore is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·More frequent heatwaves
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Elsmore faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and nearby waterways. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Changes in river flow
- ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure
bushfire Risk
The bushfire risk in Elsmore is moderate due to surrounding vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to exacerbate this risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier vegetation
- ·More frequent heatwaves
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.
Price Impact
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
- 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
- 3.Ensure adequate home cooling systems.
- 4.Review insurance coverage for climate-related events.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve Drainage Infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade local drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreDevelop a Heatwave Management Plan
ImmediateImplement a plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreBushfire Mitigation Measures
Near-termImplement bushfire mitigation measures, such as clearing vegetation around properties and creating firebreaks.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreCommunity Education Programs
Long-termConduct community education programs to raise awareness about climate risks and promote preparedness.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Elsmore's Climate Risk Profile
Elsmore, NSW, is a rural locality that faces a number of climate-related challenges. The primary concerns are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall, higher temperatures leading to more frequent and severe heatwaves, and a moderate risk of bushfires.
The risk of flooding is driven by the increased intensity of rainfall events, which can overwhelm local drainage systems and cause rivers to overflow. The heatwave risk is due to rising average temperatures and more frequent periods of extreme heat, which can pose a significant threat to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Bushfire risk is present due to the surrounding vegetation and is exacerbated by drier conditions and higher temperatures. While Elsmore is not directly on the coast, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased costs of goods and services, will still be felt.
Addressing these risks requires a combination of individual preparedness, community-level adaptation measures, and government policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build resilience to climate change.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
UNKNOWN
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate risks facing Elsmore?
Elsmore faces risks from increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a moderate risk of bushfires. These risks are expected to worsen with climate change.
How will climate change affect property values in Elsmore?
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions. Insurance premiums may also increase due to flood and bushfire risks.
What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Elsmore?
Ensure you have adequate home cooling systems, stay hydrated, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves. Follow advice from NSW Health.
What should I do to protect my property from bushfires?
Clear vegetation around your property, create firebreaks, and have a bushfire survival plan. Refer to the NSW Rural Fire Service for guidance.
Where can I find information about flood risks in Elsmore?
Check the local council's website and the NSW Valuer General for flood maps and historical flood data.
Get your property's risk report
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections