Climate Risk in Dural, New South Wales
Dural faces moderate risks from flooding and bushfires, with increasing heat risk due to climate change. Its distance from the coast mitigates coastal risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.
Is Dural Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Dural, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Dural
Flood
Dural faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location within the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
Bushfire
Dural has a moderate bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.
Key drivers:
- ·Climate change
- ·Dry vegetation
Heat
Dural experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves expected in the future.
Key drivers:
- ·Climate change
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Dural has a very low coastal risk due to its distance from the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats.
Key drivers:
- ·Distance from coast
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Dural
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Dural experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves expected in the future.
Primary Drivers
- ·Climate change
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Dural faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location within the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
- ·Climate change
coastal Risk
Dural has a very low coastal risk due to its distance from the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats.
Primary Drivers
- ·Distance from coast
bushfire Risk
Dural has a moderate bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.
Primary Drivers
- ·Climate change
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Increased ignition sources
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased flood and bushfire risk.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
- 3.Consider the cost of insurance and potential mitigation measures.
- 4.Review council's climate change adaptation plans.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve drainage infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flash flooding.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreImplement bushfire management strategies
ImmediateConduct regular hazard reduction burns and maintain firebreaks to reduce the risk of bushfires spreading to residential areas.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn morePromote energy efficiency and green infrastructure
Long-termEncourage the use of energy-efficient appliances and building materials, and promote the planting of trees and green spaces to reduce the urban heat island effect.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreDevelop community awareness programs
Near-termEducate residents about climate change risks and adaptation measures, and provide resources to help them prepare for extreme weather events.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreStrengthen building codes
Long-termUpdate building codes to ensure that new buildings are more resilient to climate change impacts, such as flooding and bushfires.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreAbout Dural's Climate Risk Profile
Dural, located in the Hills District of Sydney, is characterized by a mix of residential areas and rural landscapes. This unique setting contributes to its vulnerability to various climate-related hazards.
Flooding is a significant concern for Dural, particularly due to its location within the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment. Intense rainfall events can overwhelm local waterways and drainage systems, leading to flash flooding and riverine flooding. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this risk, with more frequent and intense rainfall events projected for the region.
Bushfire risk is also a factor in Dural, given its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can create ideal conditions for bushfires to spread rapidly. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of bushfires in the region, posing a greater threat to properties and lives.
Heat risk is also increasing in Dural, with average temperatures rising and more frequent heatwaves expected. This can lead to heat stress and other health problems, particularly for vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can further exacerbate heat risk in built-up areas.
While Dural is located inland, the increasing impacts of climate change require proactive adaptation measures to protect the community and environment.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Hills Shire Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Dural?
The main climate change risks in Dural are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.
How can I prepare my property for flooding in Dural?
You can prepare your property for flooding by elevating appliances, installing flood barriers, and ensuring that your property is properly drained. Check the Hills Shire Council flood maps for detailed information.
What should I do during a bushfire in Dural?
During a bushfire, follow the advice of emergency services. If you are in a bushfire-prone area, evacuate early. If you are unable to evacuate, shelter in place in a well-prepared building.
How can I stay safe during a heatwave in Dural?
During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned buildings, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on elderly neighbors and other vulnerable people.
What is the Hills Shire Council doing to address climate change?
The Hills Shire Council is implementing a range of measures to address climate change, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving energy efficiency, and adapting to the impacts of climate change. See their sustainability strategy for more details.
Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Dural?
You can find more information about climate change risks in Dural from the Hills Shire Council, the NSW State Emergency Service, and the Bureau of Meteorology.
Get your property's risk report
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections