Climate Risk Profile: Cheltenham, NSW
Cheltenham, NSW, faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. Bushfire risk is present but lower. Coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location.
Is Cheltenham Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Cheltenham, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Cheltenham
Flood
Cheltenham faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and local topography. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff and potential inundation of low-lying areas.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
Bushfire
The bushfire risk in Cheltenham is relatively low but not negligible. While the suburb is primarily residential, some areas border bushland, increasing the potential for ember attacks and grass fires during dry periods.
Key drivers:
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Wind patterns
Heat
Cheltenham is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. Urban areas tend to retain more heat, leading to higher nighttime temperatures and increased heat stress for vulnerable populations.
Key drivers:
- ·Climate change
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Cheltenham is located inland and does not face a direct threat from coastal hazards such as sea-level rise or coastal erosion.
Key drivers:
- ·Distance from coast
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Cheltenham
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Cheltenham is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. Urban areas tend to retain more heat, leading to higher nighttime temperatures and increased heat stress for vulnerable populations.
Primary Drivers
- ·Climate change
- ·Urban heat island effect
- ·Reduced vegetation cover
flood Risk
Cheltenham faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and local topography. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff and potential inundation of low-lying areas.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
- ·Aging drainage infrastructure
coastal Risk
Cheltenham is located inland and does not face a direct threat from coastal hazards such as sea-level rise or coastal erosion.
Primary Drivers
- ·Distance from coast
bushfire Risk
The bushfire risk in Cheltenham is relatively low but not negligible. While the suburb is primarily residential, some areas border bushland, increasing the potential for ember attacks and grass fires during dry periods.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Wind patterns
- ·Human activity
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to flood risk.
Price Impact
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps
- 2.Assess bushfire risk
- 3.Consider energy efficiency
- 4.Review insurance options
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve Drainage Infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade local drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreImplement Heatwave Early Warning System
ImmediateDevelop a system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on staying safe.
Est. cost: Low
Learn morePromote Green Spaces
Long-termIncrease vegetation cover in urban areas to reduce the urban heat island effect and provide shade.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreBushfire Preparedness Education
Near-termConduct community workshops and provide resources on bushfire preparedness, including ember attack prevention.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreInstall rainwater tanks
Long-termInstall rainwater tanks to capture rainwater for later use, reducing stormwater runoff and conserving water.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreAbout Cheltenham's Climate Risk Profile
Cheltenham, a suburb in New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary concerns for residents are the increasing frequency and intensity of flooding and heatwaves. While the suburb is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader effects of climate change will still be felt.
Flooding is a significant concern due to the suburb's proximity to local waterways and drainage systems. Intense rainfall events can overwhelm these systems, leading to property damage and disruption of services. The risk is projected to increase as climate change brings more extreme weather patterns.
Heatwaves are another growing threat, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The urban environment of Cheltenham contributes to the urban heat island effect, exacerbating the impact of high temperatures. Residents should take precautions to stay cool and hydrated during heatwaves.
Bushfire risk is present but relatively lower compared to other parts of NSW. However, residents should still be prepared for the possibility of ember attacks and grass fires, especially during dry periods. Maintaining vegetation around properties and having a bushfire survival plan are essential.
Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of individual actions and community-level initiatives. Investing in improved drainage infrastructure, promoting green spaces to reduce the urban heat island effect, and raising awareness about climate risks are all important steps.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Hornsby Shire Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Cheltenham?
The main climate change risks in Cheltenham are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall events and more frequent and severe heatwaves. There is also a risk of bushfire, particularly from ember attacks.
How can I prepare my home for flooding in Cheltenham?
You can prepare your home for flooding by elevating appliances, clearing gutters and downpipes, and having a flood emergency plan. Check the council's flood maps to understand your property's risk.
What can I do to stay safe during a heatwave in Cheltenham?
During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.
Is my property in Cheltenham at risk from bushfires?
Some properties in Cheltenham are at risk from bushfires, particularly those bordering bushland reserves. Check the NSW RFS website to see if your property is in a bushfire-prone area and take steps to prepare.
What is the council doing to address climate change in Cheltenham?
Hornsby Shire Council is implementing various strategies to address climate change, including improving drainage infrastructure, promoting green spaces, and developing a climate resilience plan. Check the council's website for more information.
Where can I find more information about emergency services during a climate event?
You can find more information about emergency services on the NSW SES website.
Get your property's risk report
This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Cheltenham, use our analysis tool.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections