Climate Risk Assessment for Carey Bay, NSW
Carey Bay faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity are key drivers of these risks, potentially impacting property values and community well-being. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.
Is Carey Bay Safe from Climate Risk?
Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Carey Bay, New South Wales, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Carey Bay
Flood
Carey Bay is susceptible to flooding due to its proximity to Lake Macquarie and low-lying areas. Heavy rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity, causing inundation of properties and infrastructure.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
Bushfire
The bushfire risk in Carey Bay is relatively low compared to other areas in NSW. However, proximity to bushland areas increases the potential for ember attacks and localized fires during extreme weather conditions.
Key drivers:
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·High temperatures
Heat
Carey Bay experiences high temperatures during summer months, with potential for heatwaves. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions, are at increased risk of heat-related illnesses.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Carey Bay is exposed to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surges due to its location on the shores of Lake Macquarie. These hazards can lead to erosion, inundation of low-lying areas, and damage to coastal infrastructure.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Carey Bay
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Carey Bay experiences high temperatures during summer months, with potential for heatwaves. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions, are at increased risk of heat-related illnesses.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Carey Bay is susceptible to flooding due to its proximity to Lake Macquarie and low-lying areas. Heavy rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity, causing inundation of properties and infrastructure.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Urban development
coastal Risk
Carey Bay is exposed to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surges due to its location on the shores of Lake Macquarie. These hazards can lead to erosion, inundation of low-lying areas, and damage to coastal infrastructure.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
bushfire Risk
The bushfire risk in Carey Bay is relatively low compared to other areas in NSW. However, proximity to bushland areas increases the potential for ember attacks and localized fires during extreme weather conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·High temperatures
- ·Strong winds
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased flood and storm risks.
Price Impact
Properties in low-lying areas may experience a decrease in value due to flood risk.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
- 2.Assess the property's elevation and drainage.
- 3.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise.
- 4.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
- 5.Evaluate the property's energy efficiency.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve Drainage Infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade stormwater drainage systems to increase capacity and reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn morePromote Energy Efficiency
Long-termEncourage residents and businesses to adopt energy-efficient practices and technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lower energy costs.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreProtect Coastal Ecosystems
Near-termPreserve and restore coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves and saltmarshes, to provide natural protection against erosion and storm surges.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreDevelop Heatwave Management Plan
ImmediateImplement a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events, including establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreRaise Community Awareness
Near-termConduct community workshops and educational programs to raise awareness of climate risks and encourage residents to prepare for extreme weather events.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Carey Bay's Climate Risk Profile
Carey Bay, located on the shores of Lake Macquarie, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb's low-lying topography and proximity to the lake make it particularly susceptible to flooding from heavy rainfall and rising sea levels. Climate projections indicate that these risks will intensify in the coming decades, potentially leading to more frequent and severe inundation of properties and infrastructure.
Heatwaves are another significant concern for Carey Bay. As global temperatures continue to rise, the suburb is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a threat to public health, especially for vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect, caused by the concentration of buildings and paved surfaces, can exacerbate these conditions.
Coastal hazards, such as erosion and storm surges, also pose a risk to Carey Bay. Sea level rise is expected to gradually inundate low-lying coastal areas, while storm surges can cause significant damage to properties and infrastructure along the shoreline. These hazards can also impact recreational activities and tourism, which are important to the local economy.
Addressing these climate risks requires a coordinated effort from government, businesses, and the community. Implementing adaptation measures, such as improving drainage infrastructure, promoting energy efficiency, and protecting coastal ecosystems, can help to reduce the vulnerability of Carey Bay to climate change. Raising awareness of climate risks and encouraging residents to prepare for extreme weather events are also crucial steps.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
Lake Macquarie City Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Carey Bay?
Carey Bay faces increasing risks from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards due to climate change. Rising sea levels and more intense rainfall events are expected to exacerbate these risks.
How will climate change affect property values in Carey Bay?
Properties in low-lying areas of Carey Bay may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood risk and coastal erosion. However, properties that are well-adapted to climate change may retain their value.
What can I do to protect my home from flooding in Carey Bay?
You can protect your home from flooding by installing flood barriers, improving drainage around your property, and raising the elevation of your home. It is also important to have flood insurance.
How can I prepare for heatwaves in Carey Bay?
You can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, and checking on vulnerable neighbors. It is also important to have a heatwave management plan for your home.
What is the local council doing to address climate change in Carey Bay?
Lake Macquarie City Council is implementing a range of measures to address climate change, including improving drainage infrastructure, promoting energy efficiency, and protecting coastal ecosystems. The council also has a climate strategy that outlines its long-term goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change.
Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Carey Bay?
You can find more information about climate change risks in Carey Bay from Lake Macquarie City Council, the NSW State Emergency Service, and the Bureau of Meteorology.
Get your property's risk report
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections