Climate Risk Profile: Yarralumla, ACT
Yarralumla faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in relation to heatwaves and flooding events.
Is Yarralumla Safe from Climate Risk?
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Yarralumla
Flood
Yarralumla has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Lake Burley Griffin and the Molonglo River. Localized flooding can occur during periods of heavy rainfall.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
Bushfire
Yarralumla faces a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of nearby bushland areas. While the suburb is not directly adjacent to dense forests, ember attack is a potential concern during severe fire weather.
Key drivers:
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·High temperatures
Heat
Yarralumla is experiencing an increasing number of heatwave days, particularly during the summer months. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Yarralumla is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Yarralumla
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Yarralumla is experiencing an increasing number of heatwave days, particularly during the summer months. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Yarralumla has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Lake Burley Griffin and the Molonglo River. Localized flooding can occur during periods of heavy rainfall.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
- ·Aging drainage infrastructure
bushfire Risk
Yarralumla faces a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of nearby bushland areas. While the suburb is not directly adjacent to dense forests, ember attack is a potential concern during severe fire weather.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·High temperatures
- ·Strong winds
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and fire risk.
Price Impact
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps
- 2.Assess bushfire risk
- 3.Consider energy efficiency
- 4.Review insurance options
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Improve drainage infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreImplement heatwave management plan
ImmediateDevelop and implement a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreBushfire preparedness
Near-termUndertake property maintenance to reduce bushfire risk, such as clearing vegetation and maintaining gutters.
Est. cost: Low
Learn morePromote water conservation
Long-termEncourage water conservation measures to reduce demand on water resources during periods of drought.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Yarralumla's Climate Risk Profile
Yarralumla, a suburb of Canberra, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The suburb's proximity to Lake Burley Griffin and the Molonglo River makes it susceptible to flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change is projected to increase the intensity of rainfall events, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flooding in the area.
Bushfire risk is also a concern for Yarralumla, although the suburb is not directly adjacent to dense bushland. Ember attack from nearby fires remains a potential threat, especially during dry and windy conditions. Rising temperatures and prolonged droughts associated with climate change could further increase the risk of bushfires in the region.
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Yarralumla, posing a significant risk to public health. The urban heat island effect can exacerbate the impact of heatwaves, particularly in areas with limited green space. Climate change is projected to lead to even more extreme heat events in the future.
While Yarralumla is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased migration, could indirectly affect the suburb. Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation measures, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving drainage infrastructure, and implementing heatwave management plans.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
ACT Government
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Yarralumla?
The main climate change risks for Yarralumla are increased heatwaves, more intense rainfall leading to flooding, and a higher risk of bushfires.
How will climate change affect property values in Yarralumla?
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions, while properties with good energy efficiency and bushfire protection measures may be more resilient.
What is the council doing to address climate change in Yarralumla?
The ACT Government has a climate change strategy that includes measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve resilience to climate impacts, and promote sustainable development.
How can I prepare my home for climate change impacts in Yarralumla?
You can prepare your home by improving energy efficiency, installing rainwater tanks, clearing vegetation around your property, and developing a bushfire survival plan.
Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Yarralumla?
You can find more information about climate change risks in Yarralumla on the ACT Government's environment website, the Bureau of Meteorology website, and the CSIRO website.
Get your property's risk report
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections