Climate Risk Assessment for Spence, ACT

Spence, Australian Capital Territory· 2615
Updated Apr 2026

Spence is a suburb in the Australian Capital Territory that faces moderate risks from climate change. The primary concerns are increasing bushfire risk and more frequent heatwaves. Residents should prepare for these potential impacts.

Is Spence Safe from Climate Risk?

Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Spence, Australian Capital Territory, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

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Overall Risk Score

Address-level

Hazard Breakdown

Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Spence

Flood

Spence has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and localised stormwater runoff. Some areas are more susceptible due to topography and drainage capacity.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development

Bushfire

Spence faces a notable bushfire risk due to its proximity to surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation

Heat

Spence is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Coastal

Spence is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

Wind

Data being compiled

Storm

Data being compiled

Social

Data being compiled

Energy

Data being compiled

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Spence

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

Spence is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
Data source

flood Risk

Spence has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and localised stormwater runoff. Some areas are more susceptible due to topography and drainage capacity.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Aging infrastructure
Data source

coastal Risk

Spence is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

Data source

bushfire Risk

Spence faces a notable bushfire risk due to its proximity to surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Wind patterns
Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to bushfire and flood risk.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check bushfire risk maps
  • 2.Assess flood risk
  • 3.Review insurance options
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency upgrades

How the region's climate is projected to change

Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.

Temperature

+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030

Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.

Rainfall

Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030

The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.

Fire weather

Harsher, magnitude uncertain

High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.

Sea level

+0.12 m by 2030

At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.

Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Clear vegetation around properties, develop a bushfire survival plan, and stay informed about fire danger ratings.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance Home Cooling

Near-term

Install energy-efficient air conditioning, improve insulation, and use shading to reduce heat gain.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade Stormwater Drainage

Near-term

Improve stormwater drainage infrastructure to reduce the risk of localized flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Implement water-saving measures to reduce water demand during periods of drought.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Spence's Climate Risk Profile

Spence, located in the Belconnen district of Canberra, is projected to experience increasing climate-related challenges in the coming decades. The most significant risks are associated with bushfires and heatwaves, driven by rising temperatures and drier conditions.

The bushfire risk is elevated due to the suburb's proximity to surrounding bushland. As climate change intensifies, the frequency and severity of bushfires are expected to increase, posing a threat to property and human safety. Residents should maintain their properties and stay informed about bushfire safety measures.

Heatwaves are also a growing concern for Spence. With rising average temperatures, the suburb is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, which can have adverse health impacts, particularly for vulnerable populations. It is important to take precautions during heatwaves, such as staying hydrated and seeking air-conditioned environments.

Flooding is a less significant but still relevant risk for Spence. Intense rainfall events can lead to localised flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage. The ACT government is working to improve stormwater management and reduce flood risks.

While Spence is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, could indirectly affect the suburb.

Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Spence?

The main climate change risks for Spence are increasing bushfire risk, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and localized flooding.

How can I prepare my home for bushfires?

You can prepare your home for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your property, developing a bushfire survival plan, and staying informed about fire danger ratings.

What can I do to stay cool during heatwaves?

During heatwaves, it is important to stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Spence?

You can find information about flood risks in Spence on the ACT Government's Environment and Planning website.

Is climate change going to affect my insurance premiums?

Yes, climate change is likely to lead to increased insurance premiums, particularly for properties in high-risk areas.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Spence, use our analysis tool.

Check Your flood Risk Now

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Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections