Climate Risk in Manly, ACT

Manly, Australian Capital Territory
Updated Apr 2026

Manly, ACT, faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to worsen with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Is Manly Safe from Climate Risk?

Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment for Manly, Australian Capital Territory, covering flood, bushfire, sea level rise and more.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

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Overall Risk Score

Address-level

Hazard Breakdown

Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Manly

Flood

Manly faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development

Bushfire

Manly has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hotter and drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions

Heat

Manly is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Coastal

Manly, ACT, is not exposed to coastal risks.

Wind

Data being compiled

Storm

Data being compiled

Social

Data being compiled

Energy

Data being compiled

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Manly

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

Manly is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Reduced vegetation cover
Data source

flood Risk

Manly faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure
Data source

coastal Risk

Manly, ACT, is not exposed to coastal risks.

Data source

bushfire Risk

Manly has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hotter and drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load
Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the rising risk of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value as climate change impacts become more pronounced.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Develop an emergency plan.

How the region's climate is projected to change

Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.

Temperature

+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030

Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.

Rainfall

Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030

The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.

Fire weather

Harsher, magnitude uncertain

High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.

Sea level

+0.12 m by 2030

At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.

Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Invest in upgrading drainage infrastructure to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement bushfire prevention measures

Immediate

Implement bushfire prevention measures, such as controlled burns and vegetation management, to reduce the risk of bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Promote water conservation measures to reduce water demand during periods of drought.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Manly's Climate Risk Profile

Manly, located in the Australian Capital Territory, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding due to increased rainfall intensity, bushfires exacerbated by hotter and drier conditions, and heatwaves that pose a threat to public health.

The suburb's proximity to waterways makes it susceptible to flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change models predict an increase in extreme rainfall events, which could overwhelm existing drainage infrastructure and lead to property damage.

The surrounding bushland also poses a significant bushfire risk, especially during the summer months. Higher temperatures and lower humidity levels create ideal conditions for bushfires to ignite and spread rapidly. Residents need to be prepared to evacuate their homes at short notice.

Heatwaves are another growing concern, with climate change expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events. This can lead to heat stress, dehydration, and other health problems, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses.

Addressing these climate risks requires a multi-faceted approach, including investments in flood mitigation infrastructure, bushfire prevention measures, and public health initiatives to protect residents from heatwaves. Individual households also need to take steps to prepare for extreme weather events, such as developing emergency plans and maintaining their properties to reduce the risk of damage.

Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Manly?

The main climate change risks in Manly include flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.

How can I prepare for a flood in Manly?

You can prepare for a flood by checking flood maps, obtaining insurance coverage, and developing an emergency plan.

What should I do during a heatwave in Manly?

During a heatwave, you should stay hydrated, stay indoors, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

How is the ACT Government addressing climate change?

The ACT Government has a climate change strategy that includes reducing emissions, promoting renewable energy, and adapting to the impacts of climate change.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Manly?

You can find more information about climate change in Manly on the ACT Government's website and the websites of relevant emergency services.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Manly, use our analysis tool.

Check Your flood Risk Now

Check Manly's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$49 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections