Climate Risk Assessment for Launceston, Tasmania
Launceston faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and increasing heatwaves. Bushfire risk is relatively low, and coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.
Is Launceston Safe from Climate Risk?
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Overall Risk Score
Hazard Breakdown
Flood, bushfire, heat, coastal and storm exposure are all assessed in this area. The score that matters is the property's own: a ClimateNest report scores the address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
What the mapping shows for Launceston
Part of Launceston is mapped as subject to coastal inundation.
27.9% of Launceston is mapped as subject to coastal inundation (coastal inundation hazard band, including 1% AEP storm tide at 2100)
49.1% of Launceston is mapped as subject to coastal erosion (coastal erosion hazard band mapped for the Tasmanian planning system)
Tasmanian Coastal Inundation Hazard Bands (20161201), State of Tasmania (Department of Premier and Cabinet), Creative Commons Attribution 4.0, retrieved 2026-10-23
This is a share of the suburb's land area from a published state dataset, not an assessment of any property. A ClimateNest report scores the individual address across eight hazards, with insurance and value projections to 2050.
Check an address in Launceston →Climate Hazard Breakdown for Launceston
Flood
Launceston faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location near the confluence of the North Esk and South Esk rivers. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Riverine flooding
Bushfire
Bushfire risk in Launceston is relatively low compared to other regions in Tasmania, but some areas bordering bushland are still susceptible. Drier conditions could increase the risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Increased fuel load
Heat
Launceston is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This trend is expected to continue, posing risks to vulnerable populations.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Coastal
Coastal risks are minimal in Launceston due to its inland location. Sea-level rise is not a direct threat.
Key drivers:
- ·Minimal coastal proximity
Wind
Data being compiled
Storm
Data being compiled
Social
Data being compiled
Energy
Data being compiled
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Launceston
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Launceston is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This trend is expected to continue, posing risks to vulnerable populations.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Urban heat island effect
flood Risk
Launceston faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location near the confluence of the North Esk and South Esk rivers. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Riverine flooding
- ·Urban development
coastal Risk
Coastal risks are minimal in Launceston due to its inland location. Sea-level rise is not a direct threat.
Primary Drivers
- ·Minimal coastal proximity
bushfire Risk
Bushfire risk in Launceston is relatively low compared to other regions in Tasmania, but some areas bordering bushland are still susceptible. Drier conditions could increase the risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Increased fuel load
- ·Proximity to bushland
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase in areas prone to flooding.
Price Impact
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
- 2.Assess bushfire risk if property borders bushland.
- 3.Inquire about council plans for climate adaptation.
- 4.Consider energy efficiency upgrades to mitigate heat impacts.
How the region's climate is projected to change
Regional projections, not a forecast for this street. Figures are from the WA Department of Water and Environmental Regulation's climate projections for the South Western Flatlands region, which draws on CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology modelling.
Temperature
+0.5 to 1.1°C by 2030
Above the 1986–2005 climate, on all emissions scenarios. By 2090, 1.2 to 2.0°C under intermediate emissions or 2.6 to 4.0°C under high emissions.
Rainfall
Winter rain down up to 15% by 2030
The South West has been drying since 1970, and the decline has been larger than anywhere else in Australia. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense even as totals fall.
Fire weather
Harsher, magnitude uncertain
High confidence that fire weather becomes harsher, low confidence in the size of the change, because it depends heavily on summer rainfall.
Sea level
+0.12 m by 2030
At the Fremantle gauge, range 0.07 to 0.16 m. Very high confidence that sea levels continue to rise through the century.
Source: Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA), Western Australian climate projections: summary, September 2021, South Western Flatlands chapter. Read the projections →
Adaptation Recommendations
Upgrade Flood Defenses
ImmediateInvest in upgrading flood defenses, such as levees and drainage systems, to protect properties and infrastructure from increased flood risk.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreImplement Heat Action Plans
Near-termDevelop and implement heat action plans to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreBushfire Risk Mitigation
Near-termImplement bushfire risk mitigation measures, such as fuel reduction burns and community education programs, to reduce the risk of bushfires impacting properties on the urban fringe.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreSustainable Urban Planning
Long-termIncorporate climate change considerations into urban planning decisions, including promoting green infrastructure, improving energy efficiency, and ensuring that new developments are resilient to climate impacts.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreAbout Launceston's Climate Risk Profile
Launceston's climate is changing, with noticeable increases in temperature and altered rainfall patterns. The primary concern is the increased risk of flooding due to more intense rainfall events, particularly affecting areas near the North and South Esk rivers. The city's infrastructure and planning need to adapt to manage these increased flood risks.
Bushfire risk, while lower than in other parts of Tasmania, is still a concern for properties bordering bushland. Drier conditions and increased fuel loads can elevate the risk, requiring proactive management and community preparedness.
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a significant health risk, especially to vulnerable populations. Urban planning and community support systems need to address the challenges posed by rising temperatures.
Coastal risks are minimal in Launceston due to its inland location, but the broader regional impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to agriculture and tourism, could indirectly affect the city. Adaptation strategies should focus on building resilience to these broader impacts.
Suburb pages describe the local picture. The address-level assessment, with its data sources and its dollar projections, is in the ClimateNest report.
Local Government Resources
City of Launceston
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Launceston?
The main climate change risks for Launceston are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall events and more frequent and intense heatwaves. Bushfire risk is also a concern for properties bordering bushland.
How is the City of Launceston preparing for climate change?
The City of Launceston is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies, including upgrading flood defenses, promoting sustainable urban planning, and implementing heat action plans.
What can I do to protect my property from flooding in Launceston?
You can protect your property from flooding by checking flood maps, elevating vulnerable equipment, installing flood barriers, and ensuring that your property is adequately insured.
How can I prepare for heatwaves in Launceston?
You can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, avoiding strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day, and checking on vulnerable neighbors and family members.
Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Launceston?
You can find more information about climate change risks in Launceston on the City of Launceston website, the Tasmanian State Emergency Service website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.
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What A$49 could save you from
*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA
Full report from A$49 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections